Durable Goods Orders Signal Recession With 7th Consecutive Drop

For the 7th month in a row, Durable Goods New Orders fell year-over-year (down 1.0%). This has not occurred without a recession. While MoM the headline number rose 3.0% (beating the 1.7% rise expected), it appears driven by another one-off surge in Boeing plane orders as Capital Goods Shipments Ex-Air fell 0.4%. Finally, the inventory to shipments ratio re-accelerated in October, back near cycle highs.

Core Capex Shipments remain lower YoY...

 

And Core Capex Orders were flat YoY...

 

But the headline remains weaker YoY for the 7th month in a row...

 

Recession looms...

 

Charts: Bloomberg