And so it begins:
IRAN SAYS MAJORITY OF OPEC MEMBERS AGREE ON OUTPUT CUT: SHANA. trial balloon time— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 2, 2015
To which we noted:
majority of OPEC members likely does not include Saudi Arabia— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 2, 2015
Quickly followed by this...
And there it is: SAUDI ARABIA, GULF ARAB COUNTRIES DON'T SUPPORT CUT: SHANA— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 2, 2015
The end-result: traders, well algos really as no carbon-based trader was fast enough to react to this, punk'd:
Of course, no production cut can work unless all members agree to a plan and implement it cohesively. Aside from a select few Gulf States, most of the OPEC membership is expected to heavily lobby Saudi officials to cut production.
But in reality, Saudi Arabia will be the one to determine OPEC’s next step. As the only country with significant spare capacity, not to mention cash reserves and the political wherewithal to actually impose production cuts, Saudi Arabia will decide whether or not OPEC moves to cut its output quota.
Finally, here is the full punking report from Iran's Shana:
Majority of OPEC Members Agree on Output Cut: Iran
Majority of member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agree on a reduction in the crude oil production to keep up prices with an exception of Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf Arab countries, said director general of OPEC and energy forums in the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum.
"Under current international conditions between Iran and certain Persian Gulf littoral states, it is unlikely that these countries voluntarily cut their output so that Iran can return to the global crude oil markets provided that political relations improve," Mehdi Asail said on Wednesday.
According to the Iranian official who was talking to Shana on the eve of the 168th ministerial meeting of OPEC to be held in Vienna on Friday, the real challenge before the organization is lack of a genuine agreement over the way of managing supply in order to establish stability in the oil market.
Iran has officially announced that it will increase production for 500,000 barrels a day immediately after sanctions are lifted. Another increase of similar amount will follow within weeks so that Iran's export will be back to the pre-sanctions quota.
Minister of Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh has said hat Iran does not need the permission of any country to increase its crude oil production.
Saying that ousting Iran's oil from the market was an "oppressive and illegal" act, the minister stressed, "Our return to the market does not require the permission of anybody. We are not expecting approval of the letter by other member states."
Speaking to Shana, he confirmed Iran has sent letters to the member states to inform them of the intention to boost its output.
"The letters were meant to inform them to include the increase in the production plans of the organization," he added, "Iran did not write letter for their approval."