When it comes to the US manufacturing economy, things are now abundantly clear: it is in a recession, the only question is how acute this recession will be, and how long it will last. According to the latest factory orders data released moments ago by the Dept of Commerce, while the headline number rose a modest 1.5%, above the 1.4% expected, the reality is that the baseline number was so low a sequential rebound was inevitable.
The real punchline is the Y/Y change, which is shown on the chart below: it shows that factory orders have now been negative over the prior year for a whopping 12 consecutive months, which is just 3 shy of the 15 months of Y/Y declines recorded during the great recession.
See if you can spot the manufacturing recession:
Still can't? How about now using this chart which shows that US factory orders are back to where they were in late 2010!
Finally, if it still not visible, here is a chart which will make the US manufacturing recession visible even to the most tenured central planner and/or economist.