In Q4 When 282,000 Average Jobs Were Supposedly Added, The Atlanta Fed Sees GDP At A Paltry 0.8%

Just over two hours ago, following the latest disappointing wholesale sales and trade, using the Atlanta Fed's GDP methodology, we calculated just where the regional Fed would trim its famous "nowcast" estimate to:

Moments ago, that's precisely what the Atlanta Fed's revised Q4 GDP estimate was lowered to. To wit:

Latest forecast — January 8, 2016

 

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.8 percent on January 8, down from 1.0 percent on January 6. The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth declined 0.2 percentage points to -0.8 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

 

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast

So, to summarize: in a quarter in which GDP rose by 0.8%, and was likely negative when excluding the benefits - yes, that's right, benefits - of the warm winter, the same way last year's "harsh winter" supposedly subtracted from GDP, the US added on average over 270,000 workers per month.

Just when you thought the Chinese Department of Truth couldn't be topped...

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