Following China's growth slowing to 1999 levels in Q3 (but beating expectations with the mirage of a mysteriously large drop in the deflator), all eyes were on tonight's data, most notably the deflator (especially following the trade data debacle from last week). The quadriga struck at 2100ET with Industrial Production +5.9% (MISS vs +6.0% YoY expectations), Retail Sales +11.1% (MISS vs +11.3% YoY expectations), Fixed Asset Investment +10.0% (MISS vs +10.2% YoY expectations), and then the big kahuna Q4 GDP growth +6.8% (MISS vs +6.9% YoY expectations). China, US equities were higher going in but faded quickly on the miss only to be rescued higher again. Offshore Yuan is fading.
Someone leaked it 5 minutes early:
- CHINA 2015 REAL GDP +6.9% VS 2014 +7.3%; EXP. 6.9%
And while the full year real GDP print was indeed inline with the 6.9% consensus - the weakest since 1990...
...it was the Q4 number that was disappointing missing the 6.9% expectation by 0.1%
- CHINA 4Q GDP GROWS 6.8% FROM YEAR EARLIER; EST. 6.9%
As Bloomberg notes this was only the first time that China's quarterly GDP has missed the forecast since early 2013.
- *CHINA DEC. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 5.9% ON YEAR; EST. 6.0%
- *CHINA DEC. RETAIL SALES RISE 11.1% ON YEAR; EST. 11.3%
Fixed Asset Investment
- *CHINA 2015 FIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT RISES 10% Y/Y; EST. 10.2%
Dow futures were rallying confidently into the numbers (on the back suddeny JPY weakness following Kuroda's appearance in The Diet)... but started to fade on the quadruple whammy miss only to be rescued back higher again... and now fading...
Offshore Yuan is extending losses but only marginally.
Gold bid, crude slid...
And just in case you question any of this:
- *CHINA STATS BUREAU HEAD SAYS 6.9% GROWTH NOT LOW
- *CHINA'S GDP CALCULATION IS BASED ON SOLID DATA: NBS WANG
- CHINA NBS: OUR GDP NUMBER IS REAL AND CAN BE TRUSTED
Think about that for a second - The world's 2nd largest economy has to come out publicly and say no seriously this was good data, you can trust it, seriously, we mean it!