Industrial Production Post Third Consecutive Annual Decline: 90% Chance Of Recession

In 17 of the 19 times in the last 100 years that Industrial Production has contracted for 3 consecutive months, the US economy has entered recession. Today 0.7% drop YoY is the 3rd month of declines.

 

The only times in the last 100 years that 3 months of US Industrial Production contraction has not coincided with a recession was in 1934 and 1952... (and the current decline is larger than 1952's in aggregate)

 

While the MoM rise of 0.9% (against a revised 0.7% drop in December) was the "strong US economy" headline du jour, a simple scratch below the surface shows most of the surge was from Utilities:

  • *U.S. JANUARY UTILITY PRODUCTION RISES 5.4%; MINING UNCHANGED
  • *U.S. UTILITY OUTPUT SHOWS BIGGEST GAIN SINCE DECEMBER 2009

So we suggest not getting too excited about that being sustainable.

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