Smith & Wesson Hits All Time High Thanks To Record Gun Demand

Two months ago we presented what we thought was a "very troubling"chart, one showing the latest data on FBI background checks, a proxy for gun purchases. The chart had just hit an all time high.

 

Since then, the progression has escalated and gun sales have continued to soar as the following update showing gun sales for the month of February over the past decade:

 

However, as we also noted, what was most troubling about the charts above is that the one single biggest catalyst for soaring gun sales across the U.S. is a simple one, as shown the following chart courtesy of the NYT:

 

The chart shows that while the soaring gun sales are the effect, the cause is simple: president Obama.

As we said two months ago, "the concern is that with one more year under Obama's term, gun sales over the next 12 months are certain to surge to new all time highs as Obama's crusade to crush the second amendment slowly picks up steam in order to cement his "anti-gun" legacy, and as the population rushes to buy as many as it can before Obama makes such purchases illegal."

We were right, and we were also right when we said that "It's not all bad news though: gun makers could not have asked for a better president"

Moments ago we got proof of just that when Smith and Wesson reported third quarter financial results. They not only smashed estimates...

  • 3Q adj. EPS 59c, est. 41c
  • 3Q sales $210MM, est. $179MM

... but have an outlook that is literally off the consensus estimates' charts:

  • Sees 4Q adj EPS 51c-53c, est. 47c
  • Sees 4Q net sales $210m-$215m, est. $195.8m
  • Sees yr sales $712m-$717m, saw $650m-$660m, est $666m

And the commentary from CEO couldn't be more glowing of Obama's anti-gun agenda:

James Debney, Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "The combined strength of our firearms and accessories businesses delivered an exceptional performance, driven by healthy consumer demand across our growing portfolio of firearm and outdoor lifestyle offerings. During the third quarter, the Adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) data, which serves as an indicator of consumer purchases, reported a significant increase in growth versus the prior year, especially in handguns. In addition, our product sell-through at distribution was much stronger than we had anticipated.  Our flexible manufacturing model, combined with our ability to successfully utilize the internal inventories we had built in anticipation of potential sell-through strength, allowed us to capture incremental sales in the third quarter.  Despite the fact that we entered our fourth quarter with lower inventories, we are focused on increasing the production rates of our key products during the fourth quarter and we are therefore increasing our guidance for the full fiscal year."

The result: SWHC just hit all time highs:

 

Thanks Obama, but rest assured: there is much more to come.