Here Are The "Dots" - Fed Downgrades Economic Outlook, Sees Just Two Rate Hikes In 2016

Back in December, the overoptimistic Fed predicted 4 rate hikes in 2016. Just a few weeks later, the Fed Funds futures said "no way", when markets crashed, predicting the Fed was dead wrong, expecting zero rate hikes in 2016 (and 2017). Since then the market has picked up modestly and now expects at least one more rate hike in 2016.

So what does the Fed say now?

As a result of another cut to the economic forecast, one which now sees 2016 GDP at 2.2% vs 2.4% previously, and a drop in inflation from 1.2-1.7% to 1.0-1.6%...

 

... the median fed funds target for end-2016 is now 0.875% vs 1.375% in December, suggesting just two more rate hikes in 2016. Additionally, the median target for end-2017 is 1.875% vs 2.375% in December, which adds another 4 rate hikes in 2017, and while the median target for end-2018 is 3.000% vs 3.250% in Dec, this is meaningless as everything will change by then.

 

Finally, for those who still care (not Pimco or Blackrock) here is the "dot plot" comparison between December and March.

Perhaps the most notable thing about it is that no "Kocherlakota" negative dot has appeared just yet.