Crude Pops & Drops As US Production Tumbles To 16-Month Lows

Following last night's API-reported near-expectations build in crude, DOE reports a smaller-than-expected 2.3mm build (against expectations of a 3.1mm build) and draws in Cushing, Gasoline, and Distillates. Oil prices surged on this. Production is more in focus now as it has fallen 9 of the last 10 weeks to its lowest since Nov 2014.  Crude prices dropped pre-data, then spiked,. but are struggling to maintain gains.

 

API Details:

  • Crude +2.64mm (+3.1mm exp.)
  • Cushing -319k (confirming Genscape)
  • Gasoline -1.94m
  • Distillates -95k

DOE Details:

  • Crude +2.3m (+3.1m exp.)
  • Cushing -272k (-500k exp.)
  • Gasoline -2.5m
  • Distillates -1.075m

This is the 7th weekly build in inventories in a row...

 

The oil rally "is to do with external factors -- a weaker dollar and increased risk appetite following Fed Chair Yellen’s statements,” says Commerzbank commodity strategist Carsten Fritsch.

“The API number was not far away from market expectations, so not much repositioning necessary,” says Fritsch; the market is watching U.S. crude production...

Production had dropped 9 of the last 10 weeks...

 

Is Production about to plunge?

 

The reaction in crude...

 

Charts: Bloomberg