While the market is still enjoying the post-NFP weekly data lull, economic data starts to pick up again in the coming days, alongside the start of the reporting season. Below are this week's key events.
From DB, a brief recap of all upcoming global events:
With a particularly quiet start to the week today and no notable releases due out, we’re jumping straight ahead to tomorrow where the early data is out of Germany with the confirmation of the final March CPI data.
Also due out will be the CPI/RPI/PPI data docket for the UK last month, while in the US we’ll get the NFIB small business optimism reading along with the import price index and March monthly budget statement in the evening.
Turning to Wednesday the early focus will be on China where the important March trade data is due out. In the European session the Euro area industrial production report for February is arguably the highlight, while French inflation data is also due. In the US it’s all eyes on the March retail sales numbers where current expectations are for +0.1% mom at the headline and +0.4% at the core. The March PPI report is also due along with the release of the Fed’s Beige Book.
Moving to Thursday, in Europe the focus of the data will be the final revision to Euro area CPI for last month. This will be followed by the BoE monetary policy meeting where no change is expected. Over in the US we’ll get the latest initial jobless claims data along with the all important March CPI report (+0.2% mom at the headline and core expected).
It’s all about China on Friday where we’ll get the Q1 GDP print, where expectations are sitting currently at a one-tenth fall to 6.7%. As well as the GDP data we’ll also get the March retail sales and industrial production data. In Europe on Friday we close with the Euro area trade data, before we turn to the US where there are a number of important reports to get through including industrial production, empire manufacturing, capacity utilization, manufacturing and the flash University of Michigan consumer sentiment print for this month.
Then a bulletin recap of just the US, from Goldman.
Monday, April 11
09:25 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will give a keynote speech at the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development (ANHD) Annual Community Development Conference. Text and Q&A are expected. Last week, President Dudley judged the balance of risks to his inflation and growth outlooks to be tilted slightly to the downside, although the downside risks have diminished since earlier in the year.
01:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will deliver a speech at a community forum hosted by the bank at Louisiana Tech University in Ruston, Louisiana. Last week, President Kaplan said that weakness in China and overseas could cause another wave of financial turmoil.
Tuesday, April 12
08:30 AM Import Price Index, March (consensus +1.0%, last -0.3%)
Consensus expects the import price index to rise 1.0% in March, which would follow 8 consecutive months of decline.
09:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will give a speech on the economic outlook at an event titled “Region on the Rise: A Construction and Development Summit”. In late March, President Harker said he would prefer at least three hikes before year end.
03:00 PM San Francisco Fed President John Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks
San Francisco Fed President John Williams will speak at the LendIt USA 2016 Conference in San Francisco. Last week, President Williams said that at least two interest-rate hikes this year are the "right course” so long as the economy continues to grow, businesses add jobs, and inflation picks up as he expects.
04:00 PM Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Lacker will speak about “Economic Leadership in an Uncertain World” at an event sponsored by the University of North Carolina Wilmington’s Cameron School of Business. Last month, President Lacker said that the evidence indicates that inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Wednesday, April 13
08:30 AM Retail sales, March (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last -0.1%)
Retail sales ex-auto, March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last -0.1%)
Retail sales ex-auto & gas, March (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%)
Core retail sales, March (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last flat)
Following a soft February print, we expect core retail sales to grow at a 0.4% month-over-month pace in March, aided by higher gasoline prices that likely bleed into the core. We expect headline retail sales to be flat, primarily due to softer vehicle sales in March.
08:30 AM PPI final demand, March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.2%)
PPI ex-food and energy, March (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last flat)
PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, March (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%)
We expect core PPI (ex-food, energy, and trade) to increase by 0.1pp in March. Headline PPI likely increased due to the pick-up in energy prices.
10:00 AM Business Inventories, February (consensus -0.1%, last +0.1%)
Business inventories include manufacturing, wholesale, and retail inventories, but retail inventories will be the only new information contained in this report. Consensus expects a slight decline in inventory levels in February.
02:00 PM Beige Book, April FOMC meeting period
The Fed's Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The March Beige Book reported modest growth in activity across most of the country, mixed manufacturing activity, muted price inflation and increasing wages. In the April Beige Book, we will look for additional anecdotes related to price inflation, wage growth, consumer spending, and the state of the domestic energy and manufacturing sectors.
Thursday, April 14
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 9 (consensus 270k, last 267k)
Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 2 (consensus 2,183k, last 2,191k)
Consensus expects initial jobless claims to edge up slightly from the previous week. Last week, initial claims reversed some of the gains from the prior week, likely due to seasonal effects related to the Good Friday Holiday.
08:30 AM CPI (mom), March (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%)
Core CPI (mom), March (GS +0.16%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%)
CPI (yoy), March (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.1%, last +1.0%)
Core CPI (yoy), March (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.3%)
We expect that core CPI rose by 0.16% in March, following a larger than expected 0.28% increase in February that featured outsized gains in apparel prices. On a year-on-year basis, core CPI likely rose by a solid 2.3%. We estimate headline consumer prices rose by 0.18% last month as retail gasoline prices recovered. On a year-on-year basis the headline index likely increased by 1.0%.
10:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (FOMC non-voter) speaks
Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks to the Engage International Investment Education Symposium. Two weeks ago, President Lockhart said that there was still scope for three hikes.
10:00 AM Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell (FOMC voter) speaks
Fed Board Governor Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee in a hearing on current trends and changes in the fixed-income markets.
Friday, April 15
08:30 AM Empire Manufacturing, April (consensus +2.00, last 0.62)
Consensus expects a slight improvement in the Empire Manufacturing survey. The Empire survey rebounded last month from depressed levels. The improvement in March of the ISM manufacturing index and the five major Fed surveys suggest that US manufacturing has turned a corner.
9:15 AM Industrial production, March (GS flat, consensus -0.1%, last -0.5%)
Manufacturing production, March (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%)
Capacity utilization, March (GS 75.4%, consensus 75.3%, last 75.4%)
We expect industrial production to remain flat, which has been restrained of late, mostly due to low utilities demand given warmer than usual weather. We expect that the manufacturing recovery continues.
10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary), April (GS 90.3 forecast, consensus 92.0, last 91.0)
We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to decline modestly in the April preliminary estimate.
12:30 PM Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will speak on the economy and monetary policy in Washington, DC.
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And summarized in table format, courtesy of BofA: