How Wall Street's Biggest Permabull Became Its Go To Permabear

Two years ago, there was nobody more bullish, or more apologetic of the poorly performing US economy than Deutsche Bank's chief US economist, Joe Lavorgna. Case in point: his Q1 2014 "explanations" why every negative print or consensus miss was due to the weather.


* * *

How things have changed: ever since the beginning of 2016 and especially in the last few weeks, while Hugh Hendry has been chugging horse doses of blue pills, Joe LaVorgna has finally discovered the red pill, and perhaps because he has been focusing a little to much on the performance of the stock price of his employer, or for whatever other reason, gradually Wall Street's biggest bull has mutated into its most outspoken bear.

In fact, a quick skim of his recent tweets reveals a mind that is clearly perturbed by the dramatic and sudden underperformance of the US economy.

Some examples:


And then the following tweetstorm from this morning


To be sure, a stunning transformation and yet, just like with Hugh Hendry's inverse metamorphosis, we hope he is ok.

And while we wonder how long until this "new" Joe is proven right about the state of the economy, we also wonder how much longer will Deutsche Bank play "good economist cop, bad economist cop" by alternating between Joe's increasingly pronounced bearishness, and Torsten Slok's relentless optimism. Finally, since the Fed will continue to intervene at critical inflection points as the economy spins out into recession, perhaps the only solution is a cage match between the two economists. Deutsche Bank can keep the pay per view proceeds - judging by its stock price, it needs them.