Blowout Victory For Donald Trump In New York Primary; Hillary Defeats Bernie: Live Stream

New York Election Night - Live Streams:

 

The results are in and as expected, Donald Trump has been immediately projected the GOP winner in New York in what was a blowout victory one in which Ted Cruz will finish third; the only question is by how much and whether he will have (well) over 50% of the vote, although judging by the early results which see him with over 60% of support, he will have little trouble to sweep the majority in most districts.

 

 

On the democrat side, the results were initially far closer with exit polls putting Hillary just 4 points ahead of Bernie, however as the votes came in it became clear that Hillary's lead was insurmountable, and moments ago CNN declared Hillary Clinton the winner of the democratic primary.

 

And with that we have tonight's two winners, the only question remaining is how much total delegates will Trump pick up as he strives to avoid a contested convention. 

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Update 3: with voting set to close shortly, here is a reminder of what the most recent polls said: Hillary Clinton has a 15 point lead over Bernie Sanders, according to the most recent poll coming out of the weekend. That's more than RealClear Politics average of 12 points, but it's also a relatively small sample size. Betting markets have Clinton at a 95 percent chance of winning.

Not a lot of suspense on the GOP side. Coming out of the weekend, Donald Trump has a 34 point lead with a 98 percent chance of winning according to betting markets.

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Update 2: an exit poll among Republican voters

 

And one of democrats:

 

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Update 1: according to Reuters, with just over an hour left until polling ends, voting in New York has been marred by voting irregularities, following official confirmation that more than 125,000 people were missing from New York City voter rolls and reports of other irregularities.

New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer ordered an audit of the city elections board after it confirmed the names had been removed from voter rolls. The city has roughly 4 million voters considered active for the presidential primaries.

 

Stringer complained in a letter to the board that it was "consistently disorganized, chaotic and inefficient." He cited faulty ballot scanners, late-opening polling stations and scant staffing.

It was unclear what the vote rigging was like on the GOP side.

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The race for the Presidential nomination runs through the "must win" state of New York today, where Republican Donald Trump will look to sweep his home state and widen his lead over Ted Cruz and John Kasich. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton will be trying to fend off Bernie Sanders, who's been on an impressive run as of late and seems to have significant momentum heading into this important primary.

Here is what the delegate breakdown currently looks like.

For the Republicans

 

And the Democrats

 

Here are the most recent poll results in New York, which are currently showing Trump and Clinton as double digit favorites.

Republicans

 

Democrats

 

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Here are five things to watch for, courtesy of The Hill

The GOP delegates battle by congressional district

Trump is carrying a 30-point lead in the polls heading into election day, according to the RealClearPolitics average. He has had over 50 percent support in nearly every poll of the state taken in the last month.

The GOP front-runner is all but certain to finish in first place statewide, earning him 14 of the state’s 95 delegates.

But Trump needs to maximize the number of delegates he can squeeze out of the state.

The remaining 81 delegates will be allocated based on the results in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts.

If any candidate finishes with more than 50 percent of the vote in a district, he’ll take all of the available delegates there.

Cruz and Kasich will be looking to keep Trump below the 50 percent mark and finish above 20 percent themselves, which would allow them to at least split the delegates at the congressional district level.

Every delegate matters for Trump at this point in the race.

Analysts are forecasting that Trump will finish somewhere close to the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination before the Republican National Convention in July.

If Trump falls short of that mark, even by a few delegates, his path to the nomination will become exponentially more difficult at a contested convention.

Taking only two-thirds of New York’s delegates would be a disappointment for him. A clean sweep of the state would be a huge victory.


Can Clinton put Sanders away?

Public polling indicates that Clinton is poised for a double-digit victory in New York .

Surveys in the state have consistently shown Clinton holding a lead of somewhere between 10 and 17 points in the state. Sanders has yet to climb to within single digits of Clinton in any poll of New York so far this cycle.

Clinton’s allies have said they hope to have put the nomination out of Sanders’s reach by the end of the month.

She begins Tuesday with a lead of over 240 pledged delegates. With 247 additional pledged delegates up for grabs, Clinton can put a significant amount of space between her and Sanders if she wins big.

But perhaps more important, a convincing victory would allow Clinton to shift her gaze to the general election.

The Democratic race has taken a nasty turn in recent weeks, and the sooner Clinton can move on, the better it will be for her.


Sanders’s quest for a game-changing victory

Sanders has so far won in places where he was expected to do well but lost badly in most of the states where Clinton has been the favorite.

A victory in a state where he’s the underdog would allow him to be seen as a serious challenger going forward.

While polls show Clinton maintaining a healthy lead in New York, Sanders has at least succeeded in making the contest appear close.

Sanders, who previously shied away from harsh criticism,  has ratcheted up his attacks against the front-runner recently.

And he has attracted tens of thousands of supporters to rallies around New York City while high-profile surrogates Spike Lee, Rosario Dawson and Harry Belafonte have been out in force on his behalf.

A victory on Tuesday could upend the dynamic of the race. A close finish, within a few points of Clinton, would legitimize his insistence on seeing the race through to its conclusion at the Democratic National Convention in July.

Still, Sanders’s reliance on young voters and independents could doom him.

The New York primary is closed to independents, and the deadline to register as a Democrat was in October.
 

Will Cruz’s microtargeting pay off?

Cruz is on a mission to block Trump from reaching 1,237 delegates.

That means contesting every single delegate, even if he has to venture into unfriendly territory, something he has done on multiple occasions while campaigning in New York.

Earlier this month, Cruz campaigned in the liberal borough of the Bronx. The headlines he drew were largely negative. Hecklers greeted Cruz, who was put on the defensive for disparaging “New York values.”

And a speech Cruz gave at the New York City Republican gala last week drew an icy response from attendees there, further evidence that Northeast Republicans seem to have little interest in Cruz’s brand of conservatism.

But Cruz is playing a long game, hoping that his efforts in liberal precincts where Republicans rarely tread will help him cut into Trump’s delegates haul at the congressional district level.

Even a few delegates could mean the difference between Trump winning on the first ballot at the convention and Cruz winning on the second or third.

Cruz identified pockets within the state where he believes his message could resonate. Cruz notably rolled matzo dough at a bakery in Brooklyn, reaching out to the city’s Orthodox Jewish community.

He will find out on Tuesday whether those efforts pay off.
 

Time for Kasich to prove his worth

Kasich has justified his presence in the race by saying he’ll do better than Cruz with moderate voters in Northeastern states where the electorate is more liberal.

New York will test that logic.

Most polls show Kasich running slightly ahead of Cruz in the state.

He has been campaigning in the state for a full two weeks and has picked up endorsements from The New York Times and the New York Daily News.

Picking off a substantial number of delegates at the congressional district level would will go a long way to convincing skeptical Republicans that he’s not just sucking support from Cruz and that he’s able to contribute to the anti-Trump efforts.

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One important thing to note, as we pointed out earlier, is that New York has one of the most archaic primaries in the nation. New York is a closed primary, meaning that you have to be registered as a member of one of the two parties in order to participate.

As a reminder, 27% of New York State's active voters were not registered in either party as of April 2016, and have missed the March 25th deadline to register. This means they will have no say in the primary.

From the article

Unless you’ve been living in a cave, you’ll know that New Yorkers go to the primary voting booths on April 19th. Unfortunately, only a small sliver of the population will actually be able to vote. First, it’s a closed primary, so you have to be registered as a member of one of the two corrupt political parties in order to participate. As the Guardian recently reported, 27% of New York state’s active voters were not registered in either party as of April 2016, meaning these people will have no say in the primary. Even worse, what about all those residents who aren’t active voters, but would very likely vote in this particular election given the increased turnout seen in other states? They’re iced out as well.

New York has one of the most archaic primaries in the nation. Not only is it one of only 11 states with closed primaries, but if you are a registered voter who wanted to change your party affiliation in order to vote in next week’s primary, you would’ve had to do it by last October. In contrast, if you weren’t yet a registered voter you had until March 25th to register under one of the two parties in order to vote in the primary. So if you live in New York and haven’t registered by now, you can’t vote.

The polls close at 9pm Eastern, and we will provide updates as they become available.

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