In one of the least surprising highlights from the ongoing earnings season, yesterday we reported that as oil continues to rise, US shale companies are starting to resume mothballed production.
First, it was Pioneer who said it was "expecting to deliver production growth of 12%+ in 2016 compared to the Company’s previous production growth target of 10%" adding that it also expected to "add five to ten horizontal drilling rigs when the price of oil recovers to approximately $50 per barrel and the outlook for oil supply/demand fundamentals is positive." Then yesterday it was another US shale giant, Whiting Petroleum, who admitted that $45 oil is good enough, and that it is "increasing its production forecast to a range of 131,400 BOE/d to 136,900 BOE/d" adding that "with the majority of completions scheduled for the second half of the year, the Company expects to realize the full production benefit in late 2016 and 2017."
And now, according to the latest Reuters production survey, in the aftermath of the failed Doha oil freeze agreement, OPEC will be the next to boost production in the coming month, expanding supplies from an already oversupplied 32.46MMb/d to 32.64MMb/d.
As Reuters notes, its survey indicates output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 170,000 bpd in April. OPEC has no supply target. At a Dec. 4 meeting the producer group scrapped its output ceiling of 30 million bpd, which it had been exceeding for months.
The Reuters survey aims to assess crude supply to market, defined to exclude movements to, but not sales from, storage. Saudi and Kuwaiti data includes the Neutral Zone.
Venezuelan data includes upgraded synthetic oil. Nigerian output includes the Agbami stream and excludes Oso and Akpo condensates. Totals are rounded. There are no individual quotas for the OPEC member countries.
The full Reuters table:
And then moments ago:
- SAUDI ARABIA BOOSTS OIL EXPORTS TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH LEVELS.
We wonder just how much longer algos can keep ignoring fundamentals.