When we noted Goldman turning bearish over the weekend, we said that this was merely a contrarian fluke without confirmation from the all important Dennis Gartman. We are delighted to report, in our recurring morning comedy foil, that moments ago we got just that from the man who according to the price of oil, should have been dead $3 ago.
This is what Gartman said in his latest note.
SHARE PRICES, SINCE FRIDAY’S MARK, HAVE MOVED NOWHERE as our International Index has lost one single point as five of the ten markets in our Index have fallen and as five have risen. Given that our Index finished last year at 9,556 and given that it is 9,238, for the year-to-date stocks in global terms are down 3.3%, while stocks here in the US as represented by the S&P are as close to unchanged as they can be for the S&P closed last year at 2,044 and it closed Friday at 2,046.
What is more important, however, than the year-to-date change is the change from our Index’ all-time high late last May at 11,185, for from that high stocks globally are down a very material 17.4%. Clearly this is bearish; clearly stocks in global terms are not bullishly inclined and clearly too here in the US, as evidenced by the chart of the NASDAQ included here this morning at the lower left of p.1, the very nature of the US market is turning for the worse as the upward sloping trend line that has defined the bullish run here in the States is about to be put very much to test.
Quietly, but steadily, in our own account… our retirement funds here at TGL and the only money we manage but money that is really rather important to us, obviously!... we are turning bearish of equities. Friday, because our position in aluminium has been turning against us, we cut that position yet again, for we always try our best “to do more of that which is working and less of that which is not.” We began cutting that position late two weeks ago and quietly but steadily cut it back last week and now have 1/3 of the position that we had on at its peak. It’s hurt us badly that we did not cut it more swiftly and more severely, but that is the nature of our trading activity; we are relatively slow to add to positions and we are equally, but relatively slow to cut them back, but do it we have.
For the record, as of Friday’s close we are +4.3% for the year-to-date, out-performing our International Index handily and still out-performing the S&P and thus most hedge funds; but clearly the past two weeks have not been our best. Today, however, given our positions in gold we should see the “spread” between our performance and that of the broad global and parochial US markets widen pleasantly in our favor.
Beware the squeeze.