After last week's global data deluge which culminated with the worst US jobs reported in 6 years, looking at this week’s calendar we get the usual post-payrolls data lull, punctuated by Yellen's speech today which will be the last scheduled Fed statement before the June FOMC.
It is a quiet start to proceedings today with just Euro area investor confidence data and German factory orders this morning, while over in the US the labour market conditions index reading is the only data of note. However, in what many say is this week's most important event, at 12:30pm Yellen will make another appearance, which this time is expected to be far more dovish than the hawkish surprise she unveiled just over a week ago (more shortly).
Tuesday morning during the Asia session we’ll have the usual focus on the China foreign reserves data, while the RBA cash rate decision is also due out (no change expected). In Europe on Tuesday the main data of note is the final revision for Q1 GDP in the Euro area (+0.5% qoq expected), while French trade data and German industrial production data is also due. Over in the US on Tuesday consumer credit, Q1 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading are the main releases of note.
It’s set to be a busy morning in Asia on Wednesday where we’ll get China trade data for May (a slowdown in exports is expected) and the final revision for Q1 GDP in Japan. Over in Europe UK industrial production and French business sentiment data are due, while in the US the April JOLTS job opening report is the sole release on Wednesday.
We’re in China again on Thursday when the May CPI (no change to +2.3% yoy expected) and PPI reports are due out. During the European session on Thursday the main data of note due out is the German and UK trade numbers for April. Over in the US meanwhile we’ll get the latest initial jobless claims print as well as the April wholesale inventories and trade sales report.
In Europe on Friday we’ll get French industrial production and German CPI. We finish in the US on Friday with the May Monthly Budget Statement and a first take on the June University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
* * *
A detailed breakdown of just US events in the coming days from Goldman:
Monday, June 6
- 02:15 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren will be discussing quantitative easing in Europe and the U.S. at the Helsinki Central Banking Conference. Recently, President Rosengren remarked that most of the conditions for a rate hike by the FOMC are “on the verge of broadly being met”.
- 10:00 AM Labor Market Conditions Index, May (consensus -0.8, last -0.9)
- 12:30 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will be giving a speech titled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia in Pennsylvania. We expect Chair Yellen to provide an update of her views following last week’s disappointing payrolls report, and to provide additional clarification regarding whether a rate hike is still appropriate in the “coming months”. Q&A is expected.
- 2:00 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will take part in a roundtable discussion at the West Philadelphia Skills Initiative, which will include Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker among its participants.
Tuesday, June 7
- 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 final (GS -0.6%, consensus -0.6%, last -1.0%); Unit labor costs (qoq), Q1 final (GS +4.5%, consensus +4.0%, last +4.1%); Unit labor costs (yoy), Q1 final (GS +3.1%, last +2.3%): We expect unit labor costs for Q1 to be revised up to 4.5% (qoq ar) from 4.1% and for Q4 to be revised up to 5.4% from 2.7%, reflecting revisions to aggregate employee compensation in both quarters. As a result, the year-on-year rate for Q1 is expected to be revised up to 3.1% from 2.3%.
- 3:00 PM Consumer credit, April (consensus $18.8bn, last $29.7bn): Consensus expects consumer credit to rise at a slower pace in April.
Wednesday, June 8
- 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, April (consensus 5,650k, last 5,757k): Consensus expects job openings to move down moderately in April, although they remain near a post-crisis high.
Thursday, June 9
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 4 (GS 260k, consensus 270k, last 267k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 28 (consensus 2,174k, last 2,172k): We expect initial jobless claims to decline to 260k from 267k last week, and to remain near their post-crisis lows. We continue to read the trend in claims as consistent with low layoff activity nationally.
- 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, April (consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%): Consensus expects wholesale inventories to edge up in April.
Friday, June 10
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary), June (GS 94.0, consensus 94.0, last 94.7): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to decline modestly in the June preliminary estimate. Despite the disappointing jobs report this past Friday, most measures of consumer confidence remain near post-crisis highs.
- 02:00 PM Monthly Budget Statement, May (consensus -$56bn, last +$106.4bn): Consensus expects the federal budget balance to have been in deficit in May.
* * *
Finally, a chart summarizing all the key events courtesy of BofA
Source: DB, GS, BofA