One month after Goldman strategists downgraded equities to neutral on growth and valuation concerns, the firm has turned up the heat on the bearish case with a report by Christian Mueller-Glissmann in which he says that equity drawdown risk “appears elevated” with S&P 500 trading near record high, valuations stretched, lackluster economic growth and yield investors being “forced up the risk curve to equities."
As Goldman notes,
"one large drawdown can quickly erase returns that were accumulated over several years."
"since the 1950s most equity markets had several large drawdowns of more than 20%, which have taken several years to recover from. For example in the 1970s the FTSE All-Share had an 80% drawdown in real terms and the DAX declined 69% during the Tech Bubble. One of the largest equity drawdowns across markets was during the GFC, when most global equity markets lost around half their value. And not to forget, the TOPIX has still not recovered from the large drawdowns of the late1980s/early 1990s."
Goldman also points out that large drawdowns are not only relatively frequent, but becoming more global in nature.
Goldman offers several ways to manage through the looming drawdown, but of course, with the heavy hand of suppression on the throat of volatility, who knows if a decline of any sort will ever be allowed again, as Charles Hugh-Smith noted when you strip out volatility and game the system: the system loses all natural resiliency and becomes increasingly brittle and fragile. The only way to make sure it doesn't tremble and shatter into pieces is to guarantee that no decline will be allowed.
Of course then you don't have a market--you have a simulacrum market, a phony fragile shell propped up for PR purposes.