This week, the market's attention will be mostly focused on this week's two key central bank meetings, namely the Fed on Wednesday and the BOJ on Thursday.
Fed officials’ meeting, on Tuesday and Wednesday, will conclude with release of their latest interest-rate decision, economic projections and a press conference with Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Earlier in the year, the meeting was considered a likely time for the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate. Alas, with reality refusing to comply with the recovery "narrative", that possibility has been dashed when the latest jobs report showed a sharp slowdown in May hiring. Still, the projections and press conference will be parsed for clues for when a rate increase could come.
Elsewhere, with the Yen soaring to the highest levels since June, and getting danerously close to the USDJPY 100 level, at which the BOJ may have no choice but to boost its QE, perhaps in the form of buying even more equities via ETF purchases; one thing that is almost certain will not happen is further rate cuts now that global revulsion to NIRP has forced central banks to turn their back on this particular experiment approach.
A quick rundown of day by day events:
- With little in the way of data today, we’re jumping straight to Tuesday where we’ll be starting in Japan with the final industrial production print for April. In Europe tomorrow we’ll get the latest May inflation docket in the UK with CPI/PPI/RPI all due out, while also in focus will be the April industrial production report for the Euro area. Over in the US on Tuesday the big release is the May retail sales print where headline sales are expected to have risen +0.3% mom which is also what’s expected for the core ex auto and gas sales reading. Also due to be released in the US tomorrow is the import price index for May, NFIB small business optimism reading and business inventories data for April.
- Wednesday looks set to be a busy day. In Europe we’ll get French CPI, the UK employment report and the Euro area trade balance reading. Meanwhile in the US the data releases include May’s PPI report, Empire manufacturing, industrial production and capacity utilization. The big event is reserved for later on Wednesday however when in the evening we’ll get the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.
- We’re sticking with the Central Bank theme on Thursday morning when the BoJ decision is due during the Asia session. During the European session on Thursday we’ve got UK retail sales due along with the May CPI report for the Euro area. Around midday we’re back to the Central Bank watch with the BoE decision due out. In the US on Thursday the big release is of course the May CPI report where current expectations are for +0.3% mom and +0.2% mom for the headline and core respectively. Also due out will be the weekly initial jobless claims data, NAHB housing market index and Philly Fed business outlook print for June.
- After all that, it’s a quiet end to the week on Friday. There’s little to note of in Europe while in the US the May housing starts and building permits data will be released.
Focusing on just the key US events, here is a recap of the top 4 economic updates this week via the WSJ:
- Watch Tuesday’s retail sales report from the Commerce Department to see if better consumer spending extended into May. Retail spending in April increased 1.3%, the fastest pace in more than a year. Continued momentum would reinforce the view that economic growth is accelerating during the second quarter. Consumer spending accounts about two-thirds of economic output.
- The Labor Department will release its consumer-price index report on Thursday. Watch for more evidence that inflation is firming. April’s gauge rose 0.4%, the fastest monthly pace in more than three years.
- Look to see if output can stabilize in the Fed’s May industrial production report, due out Wednesday. Output from factories, mines and utilities surged in April, but that largely reflected weather effects. Without that tailwind for utilities, look to see if the production increase can continue. Manufacturing output has grown very slowly from a year earlier and mining, including oil drilling, has fallen sharply.
- The Commerce Department will release its housing starts report on Friday, a gauge of home construction activity. While starts rose sharply in April, keep an eye on permits, an indicator of future building. Permits rose 3.6% in April, but have lagged behind starts for the past three months, which could suggest a slowdown in momentum.
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The above in table format:
It's not all about finance and economics: here are all the key events in the coming 5 days courtesy of Bloomberg:
- Apple Inc. convenes software developers at its annual conference in San Francisco.
- Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., with its stock nosediving and profit slowing, holds its annual shareholder meeting. Oracle Corp., the recent loser to Google in the “world series” of copyright trials, will announce earnings.
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits China, while U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron defends the European Union before the June 23 referendum on British membership.
- MSCI Inc. releases its annual market classification review, with China, Pakistan and Peru under examination.
- Art Basel opens in Switzerland with exhibitions and discussions about 20th- and 21st-century works
- In sports, the U.S. Open golf tournament begins in Pennsylvania with a $10 million purse. The Euro 2016 soccer tournament continues with games in France. Click here for the schedule.
Source: DB, BofA, WSJ, BBG