Following the mixed picture from last night's polls (YouGov "Leave" +2, ORB "Remain" +7), Soros scaremongery, and Schaeuble seriousness this morning, "UK exit would be 'very' negative for Germany," bookies' odds hover around 75-80% and Cable continues to push higher (to 6-month highs) as if the Brexit vote was a done deal. However, the Survation polls showed a rise from 42% on 6/18 to 44% today for "Leave" and Sterling is starting to slide...
Before the poll hit, Germany was in full fear mode:
- *SCHAEUBLE SAYS `EUROPE ISN'T IN GOOD SHAPE'
- *SCHAEUBLE SAYS EU CAN'T GO ON AS BEFORE IF U.K. REMAINS
- *SCHAEUBLE SAYS U.K. EXIT WOULD BE `VERY' NEGATIVE FOR GERMANY
- *SCHAEUBLE SAYS U.K. MARKET VERY IMPORTANT FOR GERMANY
Which makes us wonder, if UK Brexits, will Germany bit off its UK-Trade-deal face to spite its own nose?
Survation's last poll (on 6/18) was as follows:
- *U.K. SURVATION POLL ON EU SHOWS REMAIN 45%, LEAVE 42%: PA
And today's new post-Cox poll:
- *U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS REMAIN 45%, LEAVE 44%: IG/SURVATION
Which has sent Cable leaking lower...
As "Leave" gains post-Cox.
As JPMorgan notes, given that the actual referendum isn’t until Thurs night and the existing (albeit diminished and unlikely) potential of an “Out” victory, the SPX will likely struggle to move north of 2100 until at least Fri.
In the intermediate-term, the bull vs. bear debate is relatively balanced w/each side possessing credible ammunition with which to make their case.
However, in the near-term bears only have Brexit and if “Out” losses then the late-May/early-June narrative will quickly reassert itself (where the combination of very gloomy sentiment, increased US election clarity, a benign Fed, and ~$130 in ’17 EPS all helped to underpin an equity upside pain trade).