Gold Lower Despite “Panic” Due To “Supply Issues” In Inter Bank Gold Market
Gold fell again today to its lowest in a week despite continuing uncertainty about the outcome of the Brexit referendum. This is contributing to very significant high net worth and institutional demand in recent days, particularly in the UK, which is leading to “panic” and “supply issues” in the interbank gold market.
Supply issues which respected gold analysts and ourselves have warned in recent years were taking place, would deepen and would ultimately lead to a reset of gold prices to much higher levels.
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Increasing speculation that Britain may vote to stay in the European Union and hedge fund liquidations are being blamed for the recent price falls. However, bullion dealers such as GoldCore, mints and refineries that cater to the UK market have seen minimal selling this week and in fact there has been a surge in demand again this week.
We believe the price falls are due to hedge funds and banks liquidating positions and shorting the market. As ever, there is the risk that algo and high frequency trading (HFT) may be manipulating prices lower despite very robust physical demand and increasing liquidity issues in the interbank gold market.
Informed, senior sources at the highest level of the gold bullion industry have told us that there is “panic” in the inter bank or institutional gold market. According to the sources one of whom is from a leading Swiss gold refinery, we are in a “unique trading climate” that they have never seen before. This is not just due to Brexit but to “a number of factors” and so is likely to continue even after the Brexit referendum.
The market is subject to absolutely “unprecedented conditions” and a degree of illiquidity and “supply issues” not seen even in the immediate aftermath of September 11th, Lehman Brothers and the height of the Eurozone crisis.
Refineries and mints are being advised that bullion banks may take the unprecedented step of “suspending the trading of physical gold.” Premiums have risen on larger orders creating the situation where spreads are higher on larger orders. An example of this is that a 1,000 ounce order worth $12.66 million at current prices is trading at a premium of $0.33 per ounce over a smaller order of 500 ounces.
There is also warnings that stop loss orders above 5,000 ounces may not be filled at agreed prices and could be filled at much lower prices. In addition, a number of large liquidity providers in the gold market, such as Intl FC Stone, have increased margins.
Thus counter intuitively, larger high net worth and institutional orders are costing more than somewhat smaller relative orders. This has the effect of discouraging larger buy orders for physical – whether by accident or by design. “Officialdom” does not want surging gold prices in advance of the referendum due to the risks that this poses to the financial and monetary system and therefore prices may be being “capped” prior to the vote tomorrow.
This bodes well for prices in the aftermath of the vote – whether the UK votes to remain or leave in the EU.
Bullion banks “have been panicking” and advising that soon, they may no longer be able to quote prices on large gold bar orders. This response is previously unheard of and indicates the increasing illiquidity in the large gold bar market due to a recent surge in HNW, UHNW and institutional (wealth managers, hedge funds, banks etc) demand across the world coupled with already robust central bank demand.
The increasingly illiquid physical gold market where supply cannot keep up with demand underlines the importance of owning physical bullion coins and bars – either in your possession or having direct legal title to your individual coins and bars. Bullion should be owned in your name or your company’s name and be stored directly in the safest vaults in the safest jurisdictions in the world – outside the financial, banking system.