Yes, in case you have been asleep for 4 days, the UK referendum has passed and global markets are currently in a freefall we have not seen since 2008. In this case, I'm going to have to trumpet my successful call here. For all the general flak I received in emails for my predictions of a Brexit passage including in my article 'Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else' which was published during the height of the polling disinformation frenzy, I think it is important to explain how I was able to discern how the vote was likely to turn out when no one else did.
Also, if there were other analysts that did predict a Brexit win and I am overlooking them, please list their names and where they made those predictions in the comments below so that we can give them their due credit.
Here's why the vast majority of analysts were caught with their pants down on the UK referendum:
1) They assumed that the Brexit will hurt globalists - In the article linked above, I outlined why the Brexit actually aids international financiers and central banks by creating a scapegoat for a market crash that was ALREADY going to happen. Rather than re-explaining my position, here is a large portion of quotations from that article:
I believe the Brexit vote may be allowed to succeed, here’s why…
1) Elites including George Soros have suddenly decided to dive into the market to place bets on the negative side. Dumping large portions of their stock holdings, shorting equities and buying up gold and gold mining shares. Soros has been preparing his portfolio for a successful Brexit vote while at the same time publicly warning of the supposed dire consequences if the referendum passes. The last time Soros put this much capital into the markets was in 2007, just before the crash of 2008.
2) The IMF and the BIS have been warning since late 2015 (for six to eight months) that a global economic downturn is on the way in 2016. We saw considerable volatility at the beginning of this year, and markets are due for another shock. The last time the BIS and IMF were so adamant about an impending crash was in late 2007, just before the 2008 market plunge.
3) While the Federal Reserve has not yet implemented a second rate hike (I still believe they could use a rate hike this year to stab markets in the back if necessary), Janet Yellen pulled a maneuver which was almost as upsetting to investors. After the Fed policy meeting last week, markets were moderately exuberant and stocks were rising, then, Yellen opened her mouth and blamed the Brexit for the rate hike delay…
Here is what the Fed has done: By delaying the second hike for another month, and then blaming the Brexit vote as a primary reason, they have created a bit of a paradox. If the Brexit vote passes, the Fed is asserting that they may not hike rates for a while, giving market investors the impression that the global economic recovery is not all that it is cracked up to be. If the Brexit vote fails, then the Fed MUST hike rates in July, otherwise, they lose all credibility. I believe Yellen’s claim that the Brexit vote was the cause of the hike delay was highly deliberate. It has triggered what may become a growing firestorm in equities and commodities.
From the point of view of investors, if the Brexit passes, then all hell breaks loose. If the Brexit fails, then the Fed will hike rates and once again, all hell breaks loose. Or, the Fed refuses to hike rates even though its number one scapegoat is out of the picture, it loses all credibility, and all hell breaks loose.
It’s a lose/lose/lose scenario for the investment world, which is probably why global markets plunged after Yellen’s remarks. Investors have been relying on the predictability of central bank intervention for so long that now when ANY uncertainty arises, they run for the hedges.
The Fed decision to blame the Brexit for their rate hike delay could indicate foreknowledge of a successful Brexit vote.
4) The recent murder of British lawmaker Jo Cox is perhaps the weirdest piece in the puzzle of the Brexit. For one thing, it makes no sense for a pro-Brexit nationalist (Thomas Mair) to attack and kill a pro-EU lawmaker when the polls for the “Leave” group were clearly ahead. One could simply argue that the guy was nuts, but I’m rather suspicious of “lone gunman,” and his insanity has yet to be proven. I see no reason for this man, insane or not, to be angry enough to kill while the Brexit side was winning in all the polls.
If someone was using him as a weapon only to discredit the Brexit vote or sway the public towards staying in the EU, you would think that they would have initiated the murder closer to the day of the referendum when it would have the most effect. The information flooded public has days to digest new data and forget Jo Cox.
My theory? Thomas Mair has handlers or he is just a mentally disturbed patsy, and his purpose is indeed to paint the Brexit movement as “angry” or crazy. But this does not necessarily mean the intent behind the assassination of Jo Cox was to break the back of the Brexit movement. Rather, the goal may only be to perpetuate a longer term narrative that conservatives in general are a destructive element of society. We kill, we’re racists, we have an archaic mindset that prevents “progress,” we divide supranational unions, we even destroy global economies. We’re storybook monsters.
Even the cultural Marxists at the Southern Poverty Law Center somehow produced documents allegedly linking Mair (a veritable unknown) to Neo-Nazi groups in 1999. Wherever the SPLC is involved, the official story is always skewed.
The murder of Jo Cox has had a minimal effect on Brexit polling numbers. In the end, the elites may find Thomas Mair more useful as a mascot for the Brexit AFTER the vote, rather than before the vote.
So now the Brexit movement, which is conservative in spirit, is labeled a “divisive” and “hateful group”, and if the referendum is triumphant, they will also be called economic saboteurs.
I thoroughly agree that the internationalists do not usually allow economic developments of a global nature to occur if those events are damaging to their base of power. The problem is, Brexit is not damaging to their base of power in the long run. In fact, the elites are aided by the Brexit because now they have British pro-sovereigns and the principle of sovereignty itself to blame for a market crash that they have actually been engineering for years.
2) They Believed The Polling Numbers - I take polling numbers into account at times but they are ultimately meaningless when you are dealing with global economic events. As I point out above, such events are thoroughly played by internationalists. What people should have been looking at instead of skewed polling numbers was the behavior of elites prior to the vote. George Soros' latest market bets were clearly on a crash (I'm sure he just raked in a handsome profit), and central bankers from around the world congregated at the Bank for International Settlements in preparation for the vote. Janet Yellen blaming the Brexit for the Fed's refusal to raise rates in June should have been a red flag for everyone. When in doubt, always look at what the elites are doing with policy and their own money.
3) They Have Grown Cynical - After eight years of constant market manipulation, the Liberty Movement in particular has grown rather cynical about whether or not the fundamentals even matter anymore. I'm here to tell you, they do matter. However, stocks today are not based on fundamentals, they are based on dubious investor psychology and algo-trading computers. When investor psychology is broken, the markets are suddenly reminded of the terrible fundamentals of our economic system and stocks begin to crash. Eventually, fundamentals will win over false financial optimism. The international banks are well aware of this, and are merely allowing circumstances by which they can crash the markets THEIR WAY instead of allowing the markets to crash naturally. Too many analysts overlooked the usefulness of Brexit to the elites because of their crippling cynicism.
4) They Missed The Bigger Picture - If all an analyst does is track equities and sometimes commodities, they are never going to grasp what is happening in the economy. Our financial system is not based entirely on numbers and graphs; it is a sociopolitical apparatus. Political and social developments can indeed signal what might happen in stocks and on mainstreet. The relations are there, but they are often indirect. In 2016, EVERYTHING is snowballing with tension. It was only a matter of time before something snapped. The timing of the Brexit amidst these tensions led me to believe it had a high probability of being a trigger for the next leg down.
So, the big question now is what happens as the circus continues? I will be writing a comprehensive article on what is likely to occur over the next few months in markets and everywhere else in response to the Brexit event. Look for that article to be published early next week. I do believe that central banks around the world are probably going to take action at some point in the near term to mitigate the market collapse and slow it down slightly. As I have always said, this is a CONTROLLED DEMOLITION of the global economy; the elites want to steam valve the system down and are probably not going to allow a complete freefall.
You will most likely see a mainstream media campaign to marginalize the importance of the Brexit. They will claim that the referendum is not necessarily binding yet. That it will take years to be instituted. Frankly, this is not relevant. Again, the markets are based on psychology first, and the damage has already been done. Watch for further market disruptions to pile on before the U.S. elections, including other EU member states suggesting their own referendums.