Stocks 'Safer' Than Bonds? The Last Time This Happened Did Not End Well

It's quiet out there, too quiet. With VIX once again testing cycle lows, equity risk is trading below bond risk for the first time since right before markets crashed in August 2015.

S&P 500 implied volatility (VIX) has now been lower than Treasury ETF TLT's implied volatility for the month of July (since Brexit)...

 

As FundStrat's Tom Lee points out in a recent reports, gaps as wide as the current one were followed 68% of the time by S&P 500 Index declines in the next 20 trading days, according to his data... and is clear from above, the last time stocks got this 'relatively' complacent, things went south very fast.