Just hours before tomorrow's official GDP print, the Atlanta Fed just took an axe to its GDPNow US economic growth forecast. Despite the record-breaking streak of positive economic surprises, following yesterday's durable goods data and today's advance economic indicators report, GDPNow has crashed from over 2.4% to 1.8% growth for Q2.
But, but, but all those positive 'survey' surprises said everything was awesome...
It appears that hard data trumps soft-survey data once again: (via Atlanta fed)
The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 1.8 percent on July 28, down from 2.3 percent on July 27.
After the U.S. Census Bureau's inaugural release of its advance economic indicators report, which covers retail and wholesale inventories and foreign trade in goods, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.17 percentage points to –0.10 percentage points and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to growth declined from –0.63 percentage points to –0.79 percentage points.
Just don't tell President Obama.