By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at
This article is a follow on to last week's article. I encourage you to read it if you have not done so already as it lays the groundwork for today's article which delves into the myriad moving parts which are all working simultaneously creating an environment for the easiest short I can think of in recent times.
This is not a judgement call on any political, religious or other affiliated group but merely lays out the facts and the conclusions we must come to if we are to be honest with ourselves.
A question being asked by many European citizens regarding refugee immigrants is, "Why - when we provide them with food, shelter, and access to our civilised country - do they reward us with demands for more, demand that we instil their societal values, traditions, beliefs, and behaviours, and - even when we shrink into the corner like a dog with its tail between its legs - do they hate and murder us?"
On the face of it this looks to be a valid question. But it's first level thinking - a result of a populace brought up on a steady diet of mainstream politically correct media which not only fails to inform but actively and destructively misinforms.
In order to understand the problem let's cover some brief history as we can better understand the probability of outcomes that way.
What the West is experiencing now is the blowback from decades of disastrous interventionist foreign policy in the Middle East by Western powers. By propping up dictators, or indeed removing them - either overtly by bombing them or covertly supplying arms, funds, and intelligence, bring in its wake power vacuums. Vacuums now filled by ISIS and similar groups.
With a complete misunderstanding of ethnic, tribal, and religious groups in the Middle East, Western powers have repeatedly destroyed nations, forever altering the power structures in place.
Like it or not, Saddam, Gaddafi, the House of Saud, the Taliban, Assad,... - these guys all maintained or in fact maintain a stability in the respective countries. Sure, like all psychopathic dictators, there is no question that they preside over a cauldron of needless unhappiness. But taking them out without any plan on what to do afterwards has left a power vacuum.
The chart below shows the dispersion of political forces in the Middle East.
If we look at ISIS controlled areas you'd have to be wilfully blind to fail to see the correlation between Western intervention and power vacuums now filled by ISIS and other militant groups. Not coincidentally, this is where the bulk of the refugees hail from.
A below average high school student, high on pot, would be able to piece this together. And yet, Western leaders have a seemingly overpowering inability to make the connection. The mainstream media, governed by special interests and terrified of upsetting domestic minority groups, manufactures rather than reports the news.
This folks is how we find ourselves in what is a crisis which threatens to not only get worse but much worse.
How does this play out?
Step 1: Importing Hatred
According to a group of human rights organisations, the body count from the wars in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq - all part of the ridiculously named "war on terror" - stands at over 2 million.
Let's think about this for a minute. Consider how many close friends and family you have. Let's put the number at an even 50. Remember also that culturally Muslims have an average of 4 children rather than the European 1.5 average and factor in that a good portion of this group practice polygamy - taking 4 wives and having 16 rather than 4 children - and this number is likely pretty conservative.
For every person killed (and this can be directly or simply as a result of Western intervention) we have therefore a further 50 friends and family. So now we have 2 million multiplied by 50 which is 100 million people. What percentage of those 100 million people blame the West for the death of a loved one? It's higher than zero, that much I know.
Now some portion of those 100 million people have been invited with open arms into Europe, and we're not even mentioning soldiers who've fought against any of the Western-led military campaigns. Many of them too have made their way into the homelands of the "infidels".
Imagine for a minute being invited to a party at the home of someone who you believe had a hand in the slaughter of your family. That is unfortunately how many feel. We don't need to imagine this, we know it because they have told us this.
I'm not making a judgement call here just pointing out the obvious.
European politicians seem to have a shockingly dim understanding of this dynamic, which on it's own shows a naivety befitting a 5 year old schoolgirl.
You cannot directly, or indirectly, kill two million people, invite their relatives home and expect no blowback. That's beyond stupid. It's suicidal.
And it's not as if the intense resentment of the West by the Islamic world has been kept a veiled secret either.
To this day mainstream media's repeated failure to acknowledge the route cause of the problem, the ridiculously named "War on Terror" has meant that a populace, distracted by Pokemon Go, Big Brother, and their Facebook status, have allowed their leaders to saunter headlong into a disaster of their own making.
The West's foreign policy is a failure of the highest order, and, as is common with bureaucrats, they refuse to change obviously disastrous policy even in the face of clear and mounting evidence of its unmitigated failure. The simple fact is that Western foreign policy cultivates terrorists faster than it kills them.
Not only has the mainstream media failed to acknowledge this shockingly obvious fact, it now in shame tries to suppress the consequences of it with a failure to report everyday events which have turned parts of Europe, a previously secular society, into Islamic hotbeds where the secular populace are no longer free to live their lives without being forced daily to accept behaviours which are both foreign and threatening to them.
It has been private individuals who have been reporting what the mainstream media have been too afraid to report, for fear of "inciting" a minority group (Muslims). This short 5 minute video, which was recorded some time ago, provides an insight into what is happening on a large scale not only in Paris but increasingly across Europe.
Lest you think France is unique in the problems it faces, Sweden, once known as one of the safest countries in the world, is today the rape capital of Europe. It has the second highest rape rate in the world, with rape cases involving children under the age of 15 up an astounding 600% from a generation ago.
In an article explaining Sweden's swan dive into violent crime, and offering a fascinating contrast with Japan's openly unapologetic anti Islamic policy, it is noted that Muslim immigrants were 23 times more likely to commit rape than Swedish men.
“As Muslim men immigrated to Sweden, they brought with them an Islamic culture sanctioning rape. It is a culture bad enough inherently in the treatment of its own women. Under sharia, Muslim women serve little more purpose beyond catering to their husbands’ sexual demands. A non-submissive wife runs the risk of being raped by her husband.”
A study done by the Gatestone Institute says:
“Forty years after the Swedish parliament unanimously decided to change the formerly homogenous Sweden into a multicultural country, violent crime has increased by 300 percent and rapes by 1,472 percent. In an astounding number of cases, the Swedish courts have demonstrated sympathy for the rapists, and have acquitted suspects who have claimed that the girl wanted to have sex with six, seven or eight men.”
The complete and inexcusable failure of a politically correct West to have an honest conversation.
Firstly, acknowledging the fact that Western involvement in the Middle East has and continues to fuel the refugee crisis.
And secondly, a conversation about the horrific social issues which go hand in hand with an open door policy inviting migrants whose culture, religion, and intolerant beliefs are jarringly at odds with European democratic, tolerant, and open values.
The consequences of these failures will accelerate the rise of the right-wing as well as potentially opening up old cultural rifts between Europeans themselves, as the zeitgeist shifts to one of fear and protection.
The idea that a one currency system across Europe can survive such an environment seems delusional.
Step 2: Rise Of The Right - No More Mr Nice Guy
The cartoon below sums up the current response. The apologetic, politically correct will not last very long. There are too many undercurrents now in play.
"When only right-wing demagogues are prepared to say what a politically correct establishment is unwilling to say, then it will be right-wing demagogues that are elected to power."
Right-wing parties across Europe will be seen to be the only parties with a solution. Whether they do or not is irrelevant. This will happen.
The current ruling clutch of bureaucrats, too frightened to say or do anything construed as politically incorrect, have failed to read the tea leaves of popularism and will pay the price being voted out of office. Remember, politicians for the most part are simply political hookers willing to sell whatever is necessary in order to be elected.
Those who state the obvious gain ground not because they're smarter, necessarily have better ideas, or are virtuous, but because they bring to the attention what citizens can see with their own eyes.
It's a truism that fear is in fact a more powerful motivator than greed and fear. Real fear is going to increasingly grip Europeans as they realise that they can no longer sit in their cafes without being punched, kicked, knifed and bombed, and they can no longer ignore Islamic dictates as the Telegraph reported just last month when a waitress in the palm-fringed resort town of Nice was attacked by two muslim men for serving alcohol on Ramadan. The two men, after calling the waitress a "whore", slapped her violently knocking her to the floor:
“You should be ashamed of yourself serving alcohol in the Ramadan period.” “If I was Allah, I would have hung you.”
Not a day goes by without attacks of this nature taking place across Europe. These are not isolated incidents but rapidly becoming part of daily life.
"Police in the Bavarian town of Mering, where a 16-year-old-girl was raped on September 11, have issued a warning to parents not to allow their children to go outside unaccompanied. In the Bavarian town of Pocking, administrators of the Wilhelm-Diess-Gymnasium have warned parents not to let their daughter’s wear revealing clothing in order to avoid “misunderstandings.”
“When Muslim teenage boys go to open air swimming pools, they are overwhelmed when they see girls in bikinis. These boys, who come from a culture where for women it is frowned upon to show naked skin, will follow girls and bother them without their realizing it. Naturally, this generates fear.” — Bavarian politician, quoted in Die Welt."
In the capital of Norway, Oslo, recent police statistics show that 100% of assault rapes were committed by immigrant non-western males and yet very little is being done to address the problem.
The average man on the street is increasingly becoming aware of the scale of the problem. And the refusal by the state to acknowledge let alone deal with the problem combined with the media's reluctance to talk about it is about to boil over.
The result will be that Europeans will be extremely pliable to radical solutions. This is a dangerous time because it is in times like this that sociopaths can be elected to power.
It is a dangerous time for those of Middle Eastern and North African backgrounds and it is a dangerous time for white Europeans.
This is a clash of cultures that is bursting onto the playing field. There are no easy answers left, only containment - if it's at all possible.
Ultimately, due purely to demographics (declining birth rates of Europeans and compounding birth rates of Muslims), countries such as France in just two generations run the risk of becoming Islamic nations complete with Sharia Law. Maybe the French are OK with this but I doubt it.
Europe will increasingly be divided along tribal and ethnic identity lines.
Step 3: Borders Close
In a blind panic European countries, slowly at first then all at once, will slam their borders shut. It is of course too late as the estimated 3 million or possibly more (nobody seems to know the real number) already behind the gate will continue to bring their families over and instil their culture by whatever means they deem necessary.
It is unlikely that a country in the EU which shuts its borders, while simultaneously reneging on EU laws and directives, will stay in the Union. The dissolution of the EU may well be far more rapid than even I think because rest assured the most important topic that will be streaming across the news feeds of everyday Europeans will be that of immigration and security.
Brexit was the first major push in this direction and will not be the last. It caught the ruling elite by surprise because as I mentioned, the ruling elite are failing to read the zeitgeist.
When Le Pen is elected to power in France next year it will be the European Union she blames for the daily murder, mayhem, and chaos erupting in France's previously quiet and quant neighbourhoods. It will be the European Union she blames for the loss of French culture. And so, rallying a frightened populace desperate to retain what's left of their culture will be easy as pie.
I wouldn't be surprised if she uses the fact that Hollande has chosen to ignore the perilous situation that France finds itself in as he is pandering to his constituents (over 90% of Muslims voted for him in the last election).
Italy, Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands will all move increasingly towards protectionism. How can they not?
Expect more of what Hungary has been doing. The extremely popular Prime Minister Victor Orban's views will move from being "radical" to mainstream.
"This is why there is no need for a common European migration policy: whoever needs migrants can take them, but don't force them on us, we don't need them," "every single migrant poses a public security and terror risk" "For us migration is not a solution but a problem... not medicine but a poison, we don't need it and won't swallow it."
Five years ago these statements were considered to be that of a Nazi or fascist. But today many Europeans increasingly nod their heads in agreement.
This rise in nationalism will bring with it an election to revert to their own currencies, not because they make fiscal sense to do so (which they do), but because the zeitgeist will change and discarding the euro will be seen as both patriotic as well as safer. In other words, it will be an emotional not a financial decision. Brexit was much more an emotional decision than it was a financial one.
Step 4: The Victims Retaliate
The previous politically correct "don't say boo to a goose lest feelings get hurt" will rapidly be replaced.
Right now European citizens, which is to say the secular part of society, are in quiet shock. They whisper to each other behind closed doors but it will take a "strong man" to incite and channel their emotions. The grounds are fertile.
An attack on a Mosque by a right-wing perhaps in France, perhaps in Germany, maybe Holland - who knows? It's likely coming and when it does take place, the response from those attacked will make the Paris riots by Muslims look like a hors-de-ouvres to the main course.
Do you think a Muslim populace who already see themselves as victims will react with the same politically correct antipathy afforded them thus far?
Step 5: Isolation
When fighting an enemy in a distant country as America and its European allies have been doing, it's relatively easy to identify the target, bomb it, and declare or at least quantify some level of "success".
What do you do when your enemy just moved in next door to you?
If we look at some historical precedents it's not a far reaching conclusion to see societies further segregate. Already there are ghettos where migrants live and these are no-go areas where non-immigrants dare to go only with police escorts (if at all).
Right now there is no political or social will to speak of this. What will come are things like identification cards for immigrants, much like the South African apartheid government provided to the black population in a white-run South Africa.
On a very basic level migrants will be "discouraged' from living in areas where they are not wanted. Whether this takes the form of an official policy or not I have no idea but migrants will be increasingly isolated from society. Secular Europeans boycotting Muslim business and Muslims boycotting European business is very likely.
With right wing governments in place the banning of public gatherings, for fear of outbreaks of violence, looting, and rioting will be the security response. Any thoughts about what may be politically correct or not will be discarded in the history bucket of bad ideas.
A ban on any mass meetings by migrants? Possible.
A police presence at all mosques to ensure what is being said is in line with European values? Possible.
Such concepts currently thought insane will begin to first be discussed openly, and implemented in due course.
Step 6: European Integration Disintegrates
When one country shuts its borders, and takes a hard line stance towards migrants but its neighbour chooses to continue on the politically correct path ignoring the surging crime which their own government know about, then the concept of an integrated, happy European Union will blow out like a candle in the wind.
Don't expect capital flows into this cauldron of uncertainty to be positive. The USD, as troubled as it is, stands to benefit and so does gold.
Step 7: Banking Pressures Add Pressures To The One Currency
The enormous problems that now face many European countries will likely be with us until both you and I are in a box or sitting in an urn. The odds that the incredibly stupid idea that is the Euro, remain in its current status as the second most traded currency in the world and a reserve currency of central banks from Taipei to Timbuktu seem delusional at best.
Former hedge fund trader and co-founder of Real Vision TV, Raoul Pal has been warning for some time now about the growing problems in European banks.
Italian banks are completely screwed, neck deep in non-performing loans. The official numbers, which are almost certainly understating the true problem, put NPLs at $220.5 billion, or roughly 8% of their overall loan books. Independent analysts have argued the ratio is closer to an eye watering 15% of their loan books.
So now the question is being asked. Bail in or bail out?
And this is where the zeitgeist, which I've just spilled so much ink discussing, becomes very important. If Italy succeeds in getting a bailout, which is contrary to EU laws at present, then it's not a far step to see more fiscally prudent countries in the EU realising that they are paying for the folly of member states.
How's that likely to go down with an increasingly anti establishment pro-right zeitgeist? Not well is the answer.
I don't know what the final nail in the Euro coffin will be but one thing is plainly obvious to me: This is the most obvious short in recent history.
"We have 50 million Muslims in Europe. There are signs that Allah will grant Islam victory in Europe - without swords, without guns, without conquest - will turn it into a Muslim continent within a few decades." — Muammar Gaddafi
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