As Hillary was rushed away from the 9/11 memorial services this morning due to apparent "overheating" from the blistering 79 degree weather in New York, the latest polling data suggests that her medical condition isn't the only thing deteriorating rapidly. Over the past two weeks, polling data shows that Trump has basically pulled even with Hillary in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio and has even moved the typical Democratic strongholds of Nevada and New Hampshire into the "toss-up" category.
The latest polling data out of Florida shows a Trump surge over the past week as that race is now effectively tied.
Meanwhile, Trump has also surged in Ohio narrowing Hillary's average lead there to just 2.5 points which is well within the margin of error for most polls.
Moreover, the latest WSJ/NBC/Marist polls show a Trump surge in many states that were easily won by Obama 4 years ago. In a head-to-head contest, Trump is down only 1 point in both Nevada and New Hampshire, states that Obama won by 7 points and 6 points, respectively, in 2012. Meanwhile Hillary is also forcing tight contests in the typical Republican strongholds of Arizona and Georgia as pollsters note that this "unconventional election" could yield a "surprising electoral map."
The Journal/NBC News/Marist results illustrate how the traditional electoral map is being scrambled in an unconventional year that could see a realignment of both parties’ coalitions.
Mr. Trump is making deep inroads among working-class, white men but alienating many Hispanic voters with his harsh rhetoric about Mexico and illegal immigration. Mrs. Clinton is scoring gains among college-educated white voters, a bloc that Republicans have carried handily in the past.
"As we enter the final lap of this very unconventional election, it would not be surprising if the electoral map, in the end, has new contours,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Any of these four states could awaken a fault line in what is looking more and more like a shake-up election, with more states being up for grabs.”
Finally, the Trump surge is reflected in the national polls as well as Trump has closed what was an 8-point lead for Clinton just a couple of weeks ago to only 3 points today.
Alas, while interesting, we suspect that Hillary's latest "medical episode" just rendered this polling data obsolete and we wouldn't be terribly shocked to see a continuation of the Trump surge over the coming weeks.