Housing Starts Tumble Despite Surging Homebuilder Confidence

While homebuilder confidence spiked this mornth to near cycle highs, Housing Starts plunged 5.8% MoM - the biggest drop in 5 months; and building permits slipped 0.4% MoM - the second monthly drop in a row. Below the surface, things are more troubling as Rental unit permits (forward-looking) dropped to April lows (perhaps the surgeing rent-flation is finally crushing demand). Worse still Single-family housing starts are the worst since October and down YoY.

Confidence seems a little misplaced...

 

Both single-family and rental units saw Starts drop - but Single-Family is weakest since October and down Year-over-year...

 

Permits tumbled for rental units - worst since April...

 

However it appears a lot of the drop might be due to the weather as Starts in the south slumped 14.8% and Permits -3.4%.