Nate Silver: 51.1% Chance Of Trump Winning If Election Held Today

Nate Silver's website "538" - best known for its (sometimes jarringly) inaccurate statistical forecasts - has adjusted its projections ahead of Monday's debate, and as of this moment has tipped the odds in the favor of Republican nominee Donald Trump.

In the latest scenario, if the election were held today, the website gives Trump a 51.1% chance of winning the election, with a fractional advantage of 269.7 to 268 electoral votes, even as Trump loses the popular vote by less than 1%.

The win projection stems from Trump winning the key battleground states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada. The same projection shows Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia.


The last time that Trump won the “now-cast” was July 29, after the Republican National Convention, and before Clinton’s “convention bump” that lasted through all of August and most of September.

One reason to discount Silver's model is that a little over a month ago, the website said Clinton had a 92% chance of winning in the first week of August, and has been in a steady decline ever since.

As noted last night, Trump gained the national lead in the latest Morning Consult and Bloomberg head to head polls, and took the lead in Colorado, reducing Clinton’s chances of winning that state, although moments ago NBC/Survey Monkey announced that in its latest poll, Hillary has maintained her lead, as has been the custom for that particular poll.