Despite Massive Upward Revisions, Fed's Own Jobs Indicator Plunges Year-Over-Year - Flashes Recession Warning

Thanks to sudden upward revisions for the last 7 months in a row...


The Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index "looks" better than it did before (with a 0.7% rise in October MoM).


However, despite all the revisions, the October print leaves LMCI negative year-over-year for only the 8th time in US history.


That's only the eighth time in nearly 40 years the index was down on a year-over-year basis, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joseph LaVorgna wrote in a note to clients today. Of the seven previous occasions, LaVorgna wrote, "four were soon followed by recession."

(In the three other cases, two were false alarms, in 1986-87 and 1995-96, and in 1981 the recession began shortly before the annual change in the LMCI turned negative.)

LaVorgna said the weakness in the LMCI indicates a rising possibility of recession.

"The upshot is that the economic outlook remains fragile despite the ostensible robustness of the labor market," he wrote.

And, as we noted previously, while Deutsche Bank is growing concerned, they are not alone, as even the NY Fed's recession indicator is spiking to new highs...

Chart: Bloomberg


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