With US Treasuries the most oversold since 2007, Bloomberg reports that bonds around the world are headed for their steepest two-week loss in at least 26 years as President-elect Donald Trump sends inflation expectations surging.
The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index has fallen 4 percent in the period through Thursday.
It’s the biggest two-week rout in the data, which go back to 1990. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen fueled the decline by saying Thursday an interest-rate hike could come relatively soon.
But as Bloomberg reports, not everyone is charging into this trend...
“We maintain our short position in Treasuries,” said Mohit Kumar, head of rates strategy at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment banking unit in London, referring to bets an asset’s price will decline. “That said, we don’t expect a sustained selloff from here. Valuation is not rich any more and is close to fair.”
“Trump is a game changer,” Park Sung-jin, the Seoul-based head of investment at Mirae Asset Securities Co., which oversees $7.61 billion. “I was bearish, but the current level is more than I expected. It was harsh.”
The selloff has gone fast enough that it’ll probably pause before yields press higher in 2017, Park said.
A strengthening dollar and Trump policies that curb trade may hurt growth and limit the increase in yields, Kushma, who helps oversee $406 billion, said in an interview in Singapore Thursday.
“We’re still worried about rising U.S. yields,” he said. “In the short term, we think they’ve peaked. They could easily go up again.”
And with bonds the most oversold since 2007 - and with rallies formed the last 6 times bonds have been near this oversold, there may be hope that this yield spike is over...for now.