WTI Spikes After Iraq Headlines, Unexpected Crude Inventory Draw

A crude draw and bigger than expected gasoline build overnight from API did nothing for oil prices as OPEC headlines dominate trading and DOE data confirmed API with a modest crude draw and bigger than expected Gasoline build. Oil prices are rising on Iraq headlines even as crude production rose very modestly.

API

  • Crude -1.28mm (+1mm exp)
  • Cushing -140k (-100k exp)
  • Gasoline +2.68mm (+900k exp)
  • Distillates -350k

DOE

  • Crude -1.255mm (+1mm exp)
  • Cushing -97k (+300k exp)
  • Gasoline +2.317mm (+900k exp)
  • Distillates +327k (-1mm exp)

Confirming API data, DOE reports a bigger than expected Gasoline build and modest crude draw (as crude imports dropped 845k last week). Notably Distillates are still building at a time when seasonal norms should see a draw.

As Bloomberg reports, the draw was concentrated in PADD 3, the Gulf Coast and PADD 5, the West Coast.  Excluding PADD 5 which is geographically isolated, crude builds slightly.

US Crude Production rose very modestly on the week

 

Oil prices were spiking into the DOE print as OPEC headlines hit - IRAQ WILL "SHOULDER RESPONSIBILITY" FOR SOME OF OPEC'S PLANNED PRODUCTION CUTS - PM ABADI - and extended as the crude draw helped the machines...

Notably, Macquarie sees about a $20-a-barrel difference between having an OPEC deal and not having one.