Money Managers Have Never Been More Sure That Interest Rates Will Continue To Rise

In August of 2014, amid tapering QE and talk of normalization, speculators in the world's most liquid money-market instruments went all-in with record bearish bets on eurodollar futures. They were wrong and the short-squeeze sparked a slow-motion flash-crash in bond yields (10Y from 2.65% to 1.86% in a month).

Today, as we await words, smoke, and mirrors from Janet tomorrow, the world's speculators are even more all-in...

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators have a record net-short wager on Eurodollar futures, whose prices fall when money-market rates rise, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data as of Dec. 6.

To be clear that is a $2.24 Trillion notional bet that this time is different, that The Fed does what it says, and that interest rates will normalize higher from here because everything is fixed now.