Just as Mario Draghi exlained how his reduced bond buying was not a taper, we suspect the narrative espoused by Janet Yellen in her press conference today will be just how dovish this rate hike is.. and how the rate of normalization will be very gradual. The big question is, how will she respond to question about Trump's fiscal stimulus plan? Of course, this also may be her last flourish as Fed head, so anything goes.
The following is an excerpt of Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen's opening statement at her press conference following Wednesday afternoon's Federal Open Market Committee statement:
We expect the economy will continue to perform well, with the job market strengthening further and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next couple of years. I'll have more to say about monetary policy shortly. But first, I'll review recent economic developments in the outlook. Economic growth has picked up since the middle of the year. Household spending continues to rise at a moderate pace, supported by income gains and by relatively high levels of consumer sentiment and wealth. Business investment, however, remains soft, despite some stabilization in the energy sector.
Overall, we expect the economy will expand at a moderate pace over the next few years. Job gains, averaged nearly 180,000 per month over the past three months, maintaining the solid pace that we have seen since the beginning of the year. Over the past 7 years, since the depths of the great recession, more than 15 million jobs have been added to the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent in November, the lowest level since 2007, prior to the recession. Broader measures of labor market slack have also moved lower, and participation in the labor force has been little changed on net for about two years now, a further sign of improved conditions in the labor market given the underlying downward trend in participation stemming largely from the aging of the U.S. population. Looking ahead. We expect the job conditions will from strengthen further. Turning to inflation, the 12 month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures was nearly one and a half percent in October. Still short of our 2 percent objective, but up more than a percentage point from a year earlier.
Core inflation which excludes energy and food prices that tend to be more volatile than other prices, has risen to one and three-quarters percent. As the transitory influences of earlier declines in energy prices and prices of imports continue to fade, and as the job market strengthens further we expect overall inflation to rise to 2 percent over the next couple of years. Our inflation outlook rests importantly on our judgment that longer run inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored. Market based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably, but are still low. Survey based measures of longer run inflation expectations are on balance little changed. Of course, we remain committed to our 2 percent inflation objective, and will continue to carefully monitor actual and expected progress towards this goal. Let me now turn to the economic projections that were submitted for this meeting by committee participants. As always, they condition their projections on their own individual views of appropriate monetary policy, which in turn depend on each participant's assessment of the multitude of factors that shape the outlook.
The median projection for growth of inflation adjusted gross domestic product rises from 1.9 percent this year to 2.1 percent in 2017, and stays close to 2 percent in 2018 and 2019, slightly above its estimated longer run rate. The median projection for the unemployment rate stands at 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter of this year. Over the next three years, the median unemployment rate runs at 4.5 percent, modestly below the median estimate of its longer run normal rate. Finally, the median inflation projection is 1.5 percent this year, and rises to 1.9 percent next year, and 2 percent in 2018 and 2019. Overall, these economic projections are very similar to those made in September. GDP growth is a touch stronger. The unemployment rate is a shade lower. And inflation beyond this year is unchanged. Returning to monetary policy, the committee judged that a modest increase in the federal funds rate is appropriate in light of the solid progress we have seen toward our goals of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. We continue to expect that the evolution of the economy will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time, to achieve and maintain our objectives, that is based on our view that the neutral nominal federal funds rate, that is the interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contraction airy and keeps the economy operating on a even keel is currently quite low by historical standards. With the federal funds rate only modestly below the neutral rate, we continue to expect that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will likely be sufficient to get to a neutral policy stance over the next few years.
This view is consistent with participants' projections of appropriate monetary policy. The median projection for the federal funds rate rises the 1.4 percent at the end of next year, 2.1 percent at the end of 2018, and 2.9 percent by the end of 2019. Compared with the projections made in September, the median path for the federal funds has been revised up just a quarter of a percentage point. Only a few participants altered their estimate of the longer run normal federal funds rate, although the median edged up to 3 percent. Of course, the economic outlook is highly uncertain, and participants will adjust their assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate in response to changes to the economic outlook and associated risks. As many observers have noted, changes in fiscal policy or other economic policies could potentially affect the economic outlook. Of course, it is far too early to know how these policies will unfold. Moreover, changes in fiscal policy are only one of the many factors that can influence the outlook and the appropriate course of monetary policy. In making our policy decisions, we will continue as always to assess economic conditions relative to our objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. As I've noted on previous occasions, policy is not on a preset course.
Finally, we will continue to reinvest proceeds from maturing treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage backed securities. As our statement says, we anticipate continuing this policy until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. Thank you. I'll be happy to take your questions.
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And here are the key highlights from her speech as they come:
- YELLEN: EXPECT ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL
- YELLEN: BIZ INVESTMENT REMAINS SOFT DESPITE ENERGY STABILIZING
- YELLEN:INFL OUTLOOK RESTS ON INFL EXPECT REMAINING WELL ANCHOR
- YELLEN: MODEST FFR INCREASE APPROP IN LIGHT OF SOLID PROGRESS
- YELLEN: CURRENT FFR ONLY MODESTLY BELOW NEUTRAL RATE
- YELLEN: ECON OUTLOOK 'IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN'
- YELLEN: TOO EARLY TO JUDGE HOW FISCL POL WILL AFFECT OUTLOOK
- YELLEN: ONLY VERY MODEST ADJUST IN DOT PLOT'S MEDIAN FFR PATH
- YELLEN: UNEMPL RATE 'TOUCH LOWER' THAN SEEN IN PROJECTIONS
- YELLEN: SOME PARTICIPANTS MAY HAVE FACTORED IN FISCAL POL CHNG
- YELLEN: DOESNT WANT TO SPECULATE ON FISCAL POL IMPACT ON RATES
- YELLEN: RATE HIKE 'IS A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY'
- YELLEN: CHARACTERIZES DEGREE OF ACCOMMODATION AS 'MODERATE'
- YELLEN: FOMC IS NOT BEHIND THE CURVE
- YELLEN: MANY THINGS CONGRESS NEEDS TO CONSIDER ON FISCAL POL
- YELLEN: FED STAFF BEEN IN TOUCH WITH TRUMP TRANSITION TEAM
- YELLEN: MKT MOVES IMPLICIT FORECAST OF LIKELY FISCAL IMPACT
- YELLEN: PARTIC UNCERTAIN ABOUT IMPACT OF FISCAL POL ON MARKETS
- YELLEN: LABOR MKT LOOKS LIKE IT DID BEFORE RECESSION
- YELLEN: NORMAL AMOUNT OF SLACK IN LBR MKT, CLOSE TO FULL EMPL
- YELLEN: DO INTEND TO SERVE OUT FOUR YEAR TERM AS CHAIR
- YELLEN: NO DECISION ABOUT STAYING IF NOT REAPPOINTED AS CHAIR
- YELLEN: STOCK MKT MAY HAVE BEEN BOOSTED BY EXPCTN OF FISCL POL
- YELLEN: WONT OFFER A VIEW ON WHETHER EQUITY PRICES APPROPRIATE
- YELLEN: FAIR TO SAY STOCK MARKET REMAIN IN NORMAL RANGES