On December 9, a panel of 3 judges in the Netherlands convicted Geert Wilders of incitement to discrimination, and also of insulting an ethnic group.
Nonetheless, the two most recent polls show Geert Wilders, an anti-Islam, anti-migration politician far ahead of the pack.
Wilders Heads Polls
A quick check of Opinion Polling for the Dutch General Election, 2017 shows Wilders strongly in the lead for the next Dutch election.
It appears Wilders will win (get the most seats). However, unless Wilders can form a coalition, he will not be the next prime minister.
Wikipedia explains: The first Rutte cabinet’s parliamentary majority was provided by Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam, -immigration, and -EU Party for Freedom (PVV), but this majority became unstable when Wilders’ party refused to support austerity measures in connection with the Euro crisis. Therefore, elections for the House of Representatives were held on 12 September 2012. The VVD remained the largest party, with 41 seats. Since 5 November 2012, the VVD has been the senior partner in the second Rutte cabinet, a “purple” coalition with the Labour Party (PvdA).
Rutte may not survive the next election. If he does, it will be an unstable coalition of many political parties banding together to keep out Wilders.
Such coalitions may rule for a while, but will have a very difficult time passing legislation.
If Wilders comes in first, even if he cannot form a coalition, it will be another vote of no confidence in the immigration politics of German chancellor Angela Merkel.