Traders Place Massive Bets That 10Y Yields Tumble To 2% By February

It appears not everyone is convinced that "the 30 year bond bull is dead." A quick glance across US equity options today shows TLT (the long-end Treasury Bond ETF) is the most active with call volumes (bullish bonds, lower rates) more than double their average, with over $1.3 billion notional in February $126 Calls (which will payoff if rates drop to around 2.00% by then).

 

With come big blocks in the Feb $126 today...

As Bloomberg reports, Susquehanna notes that the trader established a low-delta, speculative upside position...

And he is not alone in his bid for those $126 Calls...

 

A $126 TLT implies around a 2.00 to 2.05% 10Y yield...

 

As a reminder, the world and their pet rabbit is short US Treasuries...

 

What could go wrong?