Who's Right? Bonds Or Stocks

With political and economic policy uncertainty at record highs and equity market valuations near record highs, we have one question: which market - interest rates or stocks - is right about 'risk' ahead?

 

We note that Bloomberg pointed out that VIX call volume climbed to ~435k, compared with 393k in the 20-day average and 88k puts traded today. Among notable trades, an opening block of 34k April 20 calls changed hands at the same time as existing blocks of 6k and 4k of the same contract, as well as opening blocks of 15k and 17k April 15 calls. Other opening blocks of 40k April 20 calls and 20k April 15 calls also traded, at the same time as existing blocks of 60k February 20 calls and 20k February 15 calls

Given the surge in VIX Calls...

 

And SVXY Puts...

 

And record short VIX positioning...

 

We suspect the answer will be evident soon.