Well the final data is in and Janet Yellen’s “hot” economy is a disaster.
The US finished 2016 with GDP growth of 1.6%.
This is flat out embarrassing. And it confirms what we have suspected all along: that the 3Q16 numbers were completely fabricated in an excel spreadsheet for political purposes.
This game is run every election cycle. This time around it was just worse than usual.
By the way, the 4Q16 GDP numbers were largely generated by accounting gimmicks as well. Without the inventory buildup and healthcare (Obamacare) real GDP growth was 0.7%.
Put another way, without companies stockpiling stuff and Government mandated socialism, real GDP was barely positive.
Let’s be blunt. The last 8 years were an economic disaster. End of story.
This is not a political attack. This is an attack of this fantasy land nonsense that somehow math doesn’t matter.
Let’s run down the last 8 years in numbers.
Since 2009, the US debt has risen by $9 trillion, doubling.
Bear in mind, this debt increase occurred despite record tax hauls from 2013 onwards.
Put another way, even while taxes raised more money than ever before, the Government still found a way to grow the debt to the fastest pace in history..
The wonks like to point out that 11 million jobs were created during this time period.
But with the debt increase this comes to ~$900K spent per job created.
If your idea of success is spending $900K to create a single job… with the odds being that the job is part-time (94% of all job creation were in part-time jobs), you should not be allowed anywhere near the economics profession or any kind of Government advisory role.
Again, the math process, point blank, states that the last 8 years were an economic disaster. Sure, if you live in a Keynesian echo chamber where you don’t get fired no matter how wrong you are, this looks fine.
Anyone who ran any business like this would have been fired or gone bankrupt LONG ago.
Under this setup, the markets have ramped to new all-time highs, based on the idea that we’re in an economic utopia.
That fantasy will soon come crashing down. The markets have completely misjudged the immediate impact of Donald Trump taking office.
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Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research