Which Trump Appointee Will Be Fired First: Here Are The Odds

With Reince Priebus and Mike Flynn seemingly on the chopping block, bookmakers' odds suggest Sean Spicer is still the 'favorite' to hear the infamous words "You're Fired" from President Trump.

 

However, it is President Trump himself that faces the toughest odds as his favorability tumbles...

 

So the likelihood of his impeachment is now evens... (but there looks like a decent arbitrage between impeachment and when he will be replaced)

As Politico reports, Ladbrokes, the British oddsmaking giant, has Trump’s chances of leaving office via resignation or impeachment and removal at just 11-to-10, or just a little worse than even money. The odds of Trump being impeached this year in the House of Representatives are only 4-to-1, according to the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power, despite GOP control of the chamber. You can win $180 on a $100 bet with Bovada, the online gaming site, that Trump won’t make it through a full term — though the bet is off if Trump passes away during the next four years.

All in all, Trump has meant big business for the international gambling industry. There’s always been betting on politics — mostly as a novelty around election season — but professional bookies say Trump’s unlikely victory and tumultuous transition mean that gamblers are jonesing to wager on his presidency.

“From a betting perspective, Donald Trump’s presidency has triggered a massive boom for these kinds of markets,” said Alex Donohue, the PR manager of Ladbrokes. “With Donald Trump, everything he does, it can be turned into speculation, and that can be turned into gambling.”

Given Republican control of Congress, impeachment seems, at best, a remote possibility in the next two years. Still, Trump’s continued ties to his businesses and his attacks on federal judges have fueled talk that Congress could seek to remove him. The Democratic automated-polling firm Public Policy Polling — in the latest in its series of “troll polls” designed, in part, to embarrass Republicans — found last week that 46 percent of registered voters would favor impeaching Trump.