Having taken a one month break since his latest February webcast, the time has come for DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach to take the microphone again for his latest address to his investors (and everyone else) - titled this time "The Byrds", and hopefully provide some insight into this increasingly more confusing market.
Readers can listen in after registering at the jump (link to register here).
Here are some of the highlights:
While Gundlach notes this is one of the most synchronized upturns in the global economy in years, he is still expecting the 10Y will first dip to 2.25% before moving to 3.0%.
German vs French unemployment: "watch out for Le Pen"
Gundlach on soaring Business Confidence: "unlike the Byrds, it is not aloof and detached."
Optimism is surging, but it is mostly "the republicans who are really feeling it."
Curious how unemployment does under republican presidents: this should answer it.
The Leading indicator has moved up again - Gundlach does not see a recession in the near term.
The market vs the Fed's balance sheet; Gundlach quotes Jim Bianco who correctly observes that while the Fed may not be buying assets, all the other central banks are.
On Trump making reflation great again, Trump shows a fun chart on reflation vs deflation chart from BofA:
Real time prices, via PriceStats, are about to overtake their previous 2011 highs:
An curious divergence in the trend of actual average hourly earnings vs stated expectations to raise worker compensation via the NFIB. Maybe it is time to lower those expectations again.
On S&P growth expectations: maybe this time will be different
Market is very richly valued as the Shiller CAPE chart shows:
... and as the Price/Sales ratio confirms:
Margin Debt predictably at record highs:
... As Libor continues to rise:
Meanwhile, the copper/gold ratio vs the 10Y suggests that more downside in 10Y yields:
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Below is the full Gundlach presentation deck: