Following January's surge in employment (biggest gain in 7 months), February's ADP print exploded higher to 298k (5 sigma above all expectations). This is the third biggest monthly employment gain of the expansion. It appears the 'Trump Effect' is the biggest driver as the ADP payroll surge was mostly due to a record surge in employment for goods-producing industries.
Private sector employment surged by 298,000 for the month, with goods producers adding 106,000. Construction jobs swelled by 66,000 and manufacturing added 32,000.
3rd best month of the recovery:
This is 5 standard deviations above the 187k expectation....
Led by a record surge in goods-producing jobs...
"Confidence is playing a large role," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. "Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff — tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively."
March rate-hike odds were 98% going into ADP and we suspect it will uptick from here.
“February proved to be an incredibly strong month for employment with increases we have not seen in years,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Gains were driven by a surge in the goods sector, while we also saw the information industry experience a notable increase.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics said, “February was a very good month for workers. Powering job growth were the construction, mining and manufacturing industries. Unseasonably mild winter weather undoubtedly played a role. But near record high job openings and record low layoffs underpin the entire job market.”
Some more visual details:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size