Bond bears covered over 340,000 10Y futures contracts in March - more than $34 billion notional Treasuries - making it the biggest short-squeeze in Treasury Futures history.
In fact, shorts covered across the entire yield curve complex... except for the every short-end...
Net Treasury futures shorts are now back to the lowest levels since early December 2016 but traders continue to pile into the short-end betting massively on further rate hikes as Eurodollar shorts push on beyond $3 trillion...
Seeingly betting on the continued "policy error" collapse of the yield curve...
This was not a surprise to Raoul Pal who explains "Why Everyone’s Got It Wrong on Bonds"
Raoul Pal is the man who correctly called the strong dollar in late 2014.
And the crash in oil prices in 2014.
And the fall in emerging markets.
And the fall in junk bonds.
He is the man who wrote ‘The End Game’ which is the most widely read financial article in the history of the internet.
He’s also the person who writes The Global Macro Investor, an original research service for a hand-picked selection of hedge funds, family offices, sovereign wealth funds and other high-end investors. Not to mention he has a background in co-managing the Goldman Sachs hedge fund sales business in equities and equity derivatives. As well as founding and managing a macro hedge fund for GLG Partners, one of the world’s largest hedge fund firms.
It might not surprise you to know that Raoul retired at 36 and now lives in a beach house on the tropical island of Little Cayman in the Caribbean.
(That’s what happens when you get the big calls right).
Today, he is predicting that the biggest ever short positions in the bond market are about to be proven wrong.
Pal believes investors are looking the other way, with the economy likely to do the opposite of what people expect. In this exclusive presentation, Real Vision co-founder and writer of the elite research service, The Global Macro Investor, he explains why everyone’s wrong on bonds and why they are probably wrong on the dollar too – outlining two trades with a great risk reward and a high probability of success.
While the market narrative is one of reflation and growth, Raoul looks behind the headlines and lays out the scenario for an exciting opportunity in fixed income and an additional related FX play. Speculative short positioning in bonds was recently at record levels, but with real growth more of an illusion, due to the translation effects of very weak data this time last year, Raoul thinks the market could be caught out on the wrong side, with a great trade for right here, right now. While everyone is talking about Trump and reflation, Raoul is looking for the reversal of inflation and the actual story where everything is going to weaken dramatically.
In this special video presentation, Raoul also alludes to what he thinks could be: ‘The Trade of 2017’ in the oil market and Real Vision subscribers will be the first to get in on the action.
Here is a short clip of Raoul’s presentation:
To access his full presentation for free, simply click the link below: