Professor Who First Predicted Trump's Victory Just Predicted His Impeachment As Well

After his stunning defeat of Hillary Clinton in November, President-elect Trump took the time out of his transition planning to write a letter to American University Professor, Allan Lichtman, congratulating him for being the first to predict the outcome of the election even when polls declared Hillary a 'yuge' favorite: "Professor - Congrats - good call."

That said, Trump may not be so enthusiastic about Lichtman's next big prediction which he spells out in a new, soon-to-be-released book entitled "The Case for Impeachment."  Within the new book, Lichtman, who is not a Trump fan despite his prediction, “explains how Trump threatens the institutions and traditions that have made America safe and free for 230 years." 

Unfortunately, unlike his novel approach to predicting presidential elections, Lichtman's "Case for Impeachment" seems to be a disappointing regurgitation of tired mainstream media narratives including treason with Russia (an argument Trump has pretty much rendered obsolete over the past week or so) and emoluments violations.  Per Politico:

Lichtman’s list of possible offenses that could get Trump to that point are familiar: charges of treason with Russia, abuse of power and emoluments violations. Lichtman also cites now-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, then a senator, who argued that a president could be impeached for offenses committed before he took office. Among those potential offenses, Lichtman lists Trump’s housing violations, charity problems, potential violations of the Cuba embargo and Trump University.


Imagine, Lichtman writes, if Trump gets Congress to lift sanctions against Russia by lying about some promise made by Vladimir Putin, or shakes the economy by lying about Bureau of Labor Statistics employment numbers.


It’s all part of a brief — designed to be damning — tour through Trump’s history. It includes section headings like “Trump Towers Become Vacant Lots” and “Lying His Way to the Presidency.” It eventually leads Lichtman to the conclusion that Trump might serve himself up for impeachment: “Trump’s disregard for lying in sworn testimony, examined in the context of the Bill Clinton precedent, shows how Trump’s opponents could set an impeachment trap for him through a civil lawsuit.”

Of course, Hillary and Obama were not guilty of any of the alleged offenses listed above...certainly Hillary couldn't be accused of having "charity problems."



Fortunately for the Trump admin, Lichtman has some suggestions on how to avoid impeachment as well, namely pursue a liberal agenda.

Lichtman’s advice to Trump to avoid his prediction is a checklist that includes divesting, supporting the Paris Climate accord, using a fact-checker and treating women with respect. He also dares Trump to “add a shrink to the White House physicians.”


“Opponents will challenge your decision-making abilities and claim that they were right all along about your temperamental unfitness for the presidency, yet you have survived and thrived by defying the conventional political wisdom. Why not do it again?”

For those who missed it, below is our note on Lichtman's original Trump prediction.

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American University Professor, Allan Lichtman, has accurately predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1984 and now he's calling 2016 for Trump.  Lichtman uses a system he calls the "Keys to the White House" which he developed after studying every election cycle from 1860 through 1980. 

Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" are the following 13 true/false questions, where an answer of "true" always favors the re-election of the incumbent party, in this case, Hillary.  If, however, the answer to six or more of the 13 keys is "false" then the incumbent loses.

Here is how Lichtman answered his "13 Keys to the White House":

1.  Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "They got crushed."


2.  Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Lichtman Answer:  True


3.  Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Lichtman Answer:  False


4.  Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven."


5.  Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Lichtman Answer:  True


6.  Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Lichtman Answer:  True


7.  Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "No major policy change in Obama's second term like the Affordable Care Act."


8.  Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Lichtman Answer:  True


9.  Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Lichtman Answer:  True


10.  Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Lichtman Answer:  True


11.  Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "No major smashing foreign policy success."


12.  Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt."


13.  Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman Answer:  True

We would probably be more likely to argue that the answer to almost every one of those questions is "False" but we'll take Lichtman's word for it. 

But, while Lichtman predicted a Trump victory, he did hedge the prediction by pointing out that Trump is unlike any candidate this country has seen since 1860. 

"Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860."

Here is his full interview with The Washington Post: