In May of 2015, we watched in stunned amazement as the price of Shake Shack stock exploded from its January IPO to soar to just shy of $100/share. Just around the time SHAK hit all time highs for the first and only time, we showed just how amazing the value of any one Shake Shack restaurant was in the context of its peers. As of May 2, 2015, it looked as follows:
Back then we cautioned that this valuation was unsustainabe. And, since May 2015, the stock price of SHAK has - well - dropped with the final indignity coming moments ago when SHAK reported first quarter earnings which on the surface were not bad: Q1 EPS of 10 cents beat estimates of 8 cents, with revenue coming in higher than expected also, at $76.7 million, an increase of 41.7%, and above the $74.7 million. Operating income rose 19.4% while Adjusted EBITDA rose 28.9% to $12.2.
That was the good news. The bad news, and the reason why the stock just plunged to all time lows, is that the "growth story" is now in tatters, because in addition to everything else, SHAK also reported that same store sales declined 2.5%, far below the +0.2% estimate, and the first negative print since the company went public.
And worse, in its outlook, the company stated that "Same-Shack sales growth to be flat to prior year (vs. 2% to 3%), which includes approximately 1.5% to 2% of menu price increases taken at the end of December."
In other words, that inflation which the Fed can't find anywhere, just killed another growth story, and the result is a plunge in the stock price to new all time lows.
As to what the updated "value per restaurant" chart looks like now, here is the answer.