It appears that the Atlanta Fed and NY Fed GDP trackers have decided to flip.
While last quarter, it was the Atlanta Fed which started off optimistic, predicting just shy of 3% in Q1 GDP growth, only to slash it all they way down to 0.4%, the NY Fed kept its exuberance - in big part due to reliance on soft data - until the bitter 0.7% Q1 GDP announcement by the BEA last week.
But, it's now a new quarter, and everything resets, and while the Atlanta Fed has once again started off strong, expecting 4.3% initially although modestly trimming its exuberance to 4.2% in Q2 GDP yesterday - a number which we expect to decline materially once again - this time the NY Fed, perhaps wishing to avoid another quarter of mockery, is far more cautious, and in its latest just released Nowcasting report, the NY Fed now expected Q2 GDP to grow by only 1.8%, down from 2.3% due to "negative surprises from the ISM manufacturing survey as well as import and export data only partly offset by positive surprises from the employment report."
Meanwhile, the consensus Wall Street estimate is currently at 2.7%, ranging from roughly 2.1% to 3.2%. If this again proves overly optimistic, one can always blame the weather. Again.