WTI/RBOB Jump After Biggest Crude Inventory Draw Since 2016

WTI and RBOB have rallied since last night's surprisingly large Crude draw (and gasoline build) reported by API, and DOE ata confirmed with inventory draws across the entire complex (including gasoline). WTIO and RBOB prices popped as Crude inventories dropped most since 2016 despite crude production rising above 9.3mm - highest since Aug 2015.

API

  • Crude -5.789mm (-2mm exp) - biggest since 2016
  • Cushing -133k (+60k exp)
  • Gasoline +3.169mm (+350k exp)
  • Distillates -1.174mm (-800k exp)

DOE

  • Crude -5.247mm (-2mm exp)
  • Cushing -438k (+60k exp)
  • Gasoline -150k (+350k exp)
  • Distillates -1.587mm (-800k exp)

Draws across the board with Crude inventories down most since Dec 2016

 

Gasoline demand is going against the seasonal norm... declining in the last few weeks when it should be surging iont summer driving season

 

 

U.S. crude production continued its steady rise, up 21,000 barrels a day to 9.314 million. That's 12 consecutive increases, 13 in 14 weeks, and 14 in 16 weeks. Production now at the largest since August 2015.

As a reminder, Bloomberg notes that EIA bumped up its estimates and forecasts for U.S. crude production yet again in yesterday's STEO report. It increased its April estimate by 20,000 b/d and May by 40,000 b/d compared with the previous month's forecast. For Lower 48 onshore output, the increase was even bigger -- 50,000 b/d for April and 60,000 b/d for May. It now sees output exceeding the April 2015 peak of 9.63 million barrels a day by November, a month earlier than before.

 

WTI and RBOB both rallied overnight (as the dollar sank) following the big API-reported crude draw, and extended their gaisn after DOE confirmed the draw...