With the UK elections fast approaching, what was until recently seen as an almost certain overall majority for Theresa May is rapidly slipping away, and moments ago according to Sam Coates, the Deputy Political Editor of the Times, a just released YouGov poll shows that the Conservatives would miss the number of seats needed for a majority (326) by roughly 16 seats, and in fact would lose 20 seats from the 330 the Tories had at the time of the dissolution of the 2015-2017 parliament.
Tonight: we reveal YouGov's first seat by seat projection of the campaign - suggests Tories fall 16 seats short of overall majority pic.twitter.com/8ouPRHTZ7m— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) May 30, 2017
It took the algos a while to catch up, but cable is now down 50 pips since the time of the announcement, and continuing to slide as UK political chaos once again appears to be on the agenda.
That said there are some major caveats: according to Bloomberg, the poll allows for big variations and suggests Conservatives could get as many seats as 345, or as few as 274. BBG adds that the polling model based on 50,000 interviews over course of a week from panel brought together by YouGov. Finally, the central projection of model allows for wide margin of error.
In other words, just like with Brexit, the finaly number can be pretty much anything.