Mass Immigration & The Looming Disappearance Of The Dutch Population


A change in demographic trends takes 50 year before they become plainly visible. The decline in fertility in the sixties started to become visible after 50 years. Cerberus, our population simulator, shows with scientific precision that the replacement of the European society has started, and within 50 years it will be visible and irreversible.

Since the seventies of the previous century, the Western societies have not produced enough offspring to keep their communities growing. The fertility rate (i.e. the average number of children per woman) is far below 2.1. i.e. the level of replacement. A population with a higher rate will grow while a population with a lower rate will shrink. As it is, the Western and Japanese societies will begin to implode 40 years from the moment their fertility rate dropped, and this demographic winter, as this phenomenon is sometimes called, will affect the world more profoundly than the climate change, so politicians and investors should take notice. 

According to official state data the Swedish, French and Dutch populations will keep growing for the foreseeable future despite their low fertility rates. Western politicians seem to be taking great pleasure in the population decline in Russia, but shouldn’t they first bother about their own turf? How e.g. is it possible that the number of residents the Netherlands keeps growing if the number of the newborns is smaller and smaller?

To get an insight into the European situation the Gefira team performed the computation, and developed Cerberus 2.0, a software tool that, using copious amounts of demographic data provided by the Central Bureaus of Statistics, simulates the population development.

Cerberus, making use of the CBS Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics data, calculates how many people died and were born for every consecutive year from 1950 till 2100 and then creates a hypothetical Dutch population growth model without migration. This model overlaps with the official data up to 1980 (blue line in Figure 1 below). In the sixties, the Netherlands had an emigration surplus, i.e. more people left the country than arrived, while in the seventies the so-called mass immigration set in and the process was reversed.

Figure 1

A couple of years of immigration has no visible effect, which is why many immigration advocates argue that 50,000 arrivals against a population of 14 million, (i.e. 0.3 percent) is negligible. This is only true if it is a one-time event. If it happens year after year, it brings about a structural change of a population.

The cumulative effect of immigration became visible in the data after 10 years in 1980. The total population in the Netherlands grew according to the official CBS data (green line) much faster than the native population calculated by Cerberus (blue line). The native Dutch population reached a peak around 2015 at 15 million people, while the total number of inhabitants according to the CBS was 17 million and growing. The Dutch society will stay more or less stable with 18 million until 2060, the final year of the CBS projection. Cerberus on the other hand shows that in 2015 the Dutch population started to decline rapidly and in 2060 there will be 12 million Dutch left while at the end of the century there will only be 9 million native Dutch. The Dutch natives will become a minority. Due to demographic inertia it takes a long period before changes in fertility and migration are felt. We remind the reader that the Dutch fertility rate started to drop in the sixties and went below the point of replacement in 1973. Since then it will have taken more than 42 years before the Dutch native population starts to decline. The inevitable replacement of the people of Europe at the end of this century is already set in motion and we believe that after 2030 this process is irreversible.

We use Cerberus to calculate how many migrants are needed to keep the Dutch population stable at 18 million. We input into Cerberus the 1950 population and, starting in 1971, added 15%, 20% and 25% immigration-related growth. Our model showed that the population stabilized with a 25% extra growth, that is about 45 thousand immigrants annually, around 18 million people, which overlaps with the CBS projection

Cerberus proves that the Netherlands needs 45 thousand immigrants to meet the official projections of the CBS. The CBS data is the basis for governmental planning. The Dutch planners keep the mass-immigration unchanged for the foreseeable future instead of anticipating a sharp drop in population. Apparently, the Dutch establishment opts for the replacement of the Dutch society.

Figure 2

To perceive the consequence of the continuation of mass-immigration, one has to take a closer look at the population growth. When more immigrant children are born than those of Dutch natives the effect is not immediately visible, migrants will still be a minority of the total population but inevitably the Dutch will become a minority within that generation. To see how the growth of the Dutch population evolves we divided it into three components:

  1. The steadily decreasing number of newborn native Dutch;
  2. The steadily increasing number of non-native newborns;
  3. A constant number of incoming immigrants.

These components are shown in Figure 2.

In 2060 50% of the growth in the Netherlands will be non-Western newborns (orange) and immigrants (red), and around 2070 50% of all newborns (orange) are non-native Dutch. From there it takes a further 25 years before the natives are a minority. The Cerberus projections are very optimistic as they assume the native fertility rate at 1.66. According to our separate calculation the real current native-Dutch fertility rate is much lower and close to 1.5. Cerberus shows that the next decades are crucial for the survival of the Dutch population. In 2060 we will cross the Rubicon and reach the point of no return, the Dutch will be inevitably replaced with a non-Western society. But in 2035, 17 years from now, the total growth of the non-Dutch population in the Netherlands will already be a shocking 42%. Measures to increase the fertility are rather counterproductive and will probably only increase the fertility rate of non-Western immigrants. It is said that in the seventies and eighties immigrant families with 6 kids were able to live on the child benefit.

Since the demographic decline is observable in all Western countries, we are in for Europeans being gradually replaced by peoples from Africa or South Asia. We are now at the eleventh hour and if we do not put an immediate stop to all immigration, the Dutch society will vanish into thin air.


Erek Tue, 06/06/2017 - 03:37 Permalink

This is not just a Dutch problem. It' a problem for all of Europe. So let's just keep bringing in those "refugees". After all Mama Merkel needs someone to pay for her retirement.

Haus-Targaryen ACP Tue, 06/06/2017 - 03:58 Permalink

In the next 20 years there will be another Holocaust in Europe. The only thing to be decided is who will get gassed?  Native population or the new comers. If you are one of those dumbs who thinks we can all live happily every after holding hands and smiling at one another, you're a fool and likely won't live to see old age. 

In reply to by ACP

land_of_the_few Dame Ednas Possum Tue, 06/06/2017 - 04:28 Permalink

Then there is robotisation and so on, we will not need all these extra people. They will only get old themselves.Additionally why the constant assumption that we "need more people" to "fund pensions". This seems more than a little bizarre economically.We can''t say they will "bring money" exactly, or even be sure they will produce more. And tax money, well, does that always have to come exactly from "payroll", isn't that a little unwise to always load up the burden of tax onto payroll this way? 

In reply to by Dame Ednas Possum

HenryKissinger… land_of_the_few Tue, 06/06/2017 - 05:29 Permalink

ALL acording to plan...nothing to see here, it is just a plan to turn europe into a future race of mongrel Jew-worshippers...check also:-Kalergi plan (miscegenation into low IQ brown mongrels) / also Hooton plan-George Soros leaks on the Merkel plan-Charlemagne Prize BEARERS list professional rapefugee smugglers… divörsity Lerner Spectre"I think there is a resurgence of anti-Semitism because at this point in time Europe has not yet learned how to be multicultural. And I think we are going to be part of the throes of that transformation, which must take place. Europe is not going to be the monolithic societies they once were in the last century. Jews are going to be at the centre of that. It’s a huge transformation for Europe to make. They are now going into a multicultural mode and Jews will be resented because of our leading role. But without that leading role and without that transformation, Europe will not survive." ~ Barbara Lerner Spectre

In reply to by land_of_the_few

fleur de lis HenryKissinger… Tue, 06/06/2017 - 07:12 Permalink

If Europe really needed to import third worlders for social reasons they could have imported Brazilians or other Latinos who would have fit in and become prosperous.They could have imported Asians with the same results.They chose to import the world's most maladaptive, unassimilable, impoverished, illiterate, violent, socially stunted group because they want to wipe out Europe and its various populations.The question is why and what is the long term plan.The imported Islamics are unproductive, hostile, and a massive drain in every way.The power mongers know this very well.The claim that they are simply replacing an aging population is bogus.Why would they replace an aging population with savages?So do they really think that they can control the Islamics the way they do Europeans?Of course not.So what happens after critical mass?Ultimately the Islamics and their violent culture will not be tolerated, but for now they serve a demented purpose, and they are conveniently too stupid to know.Cui bono?  

In reply to by HenryKissinger…

fleur de lis neversink Tue, 06/06/2017 - 11:12 Permalink

All ethnic groups have their own values, goals, etc.Jews as a group have been big promoters of unbridled immigration to Western nations, and promote liberal, Marxist, multicultural, globalist, etc., policies on a national and international basis.Those unnatural policies are now spinning out of control.European multiculti is turning on them and other natives but either they do not understand why or they think they can ride the tiger.The were the biggest cheerleaders for communism, socialism, etc., because they perceived them as superior systems, and never thought they would get bit.They worked to dismantle traditional and functional systems and customs because they saw them as oppressive.The Jews are their own worst enemies.  

In reply to by neversink

Lucretius neversink Tue, 06/06/2017 - 10:44 Permalink

What kind of fool believes that a religion/cult is responsible for all the evil on earth? I despise the greedy f'n joo stereotype as much as the next well informed person  . Yes, (((they))) are ridiculously over represented in banking and professional liars (lawyers), politics, etc (mainly NON productive activities) and yes ,(((they))) seem to be greedy and avaricious, even userous. But, in reality, these are generalizations and do not necessarily fit upon every person of (((that))) persuasion. I have known a FEW that did not fit that profile. If JooAIDS killed (((them))) all tomorrow, evil would still remain in men's hearts and minds.Like all white men are morally upright and honest, right?I am NOT a bleeding heart libturd, but prejudice is ugly  ... and indicative of a small mind. imho

In reply to by neversink

MEFOBILLS land_of_the_few Tue, 06/06/2017 - 13:55 Permalink

I mention sovereign money and Douglas Social Credit theory often to ZH members.  Even here at a monetary blog.......crickets.Both of these systems have significant overlap and can be made non usurious.It is the paying of money for money, to then satisfy growing bond demands- this is the root problem of Jewish finance capitalism.  The Jewish religion allows usury as a method of war against competing tribes.GROWING CLAIMS ON DEBT INSTRUMENTS, need more people, to become debtors.  In this way, future debt holders pay today's debt holders.Since white people were punked into not having babies, now the power cabala elite want to import new debtors.  The power elite WANT THEIR BONDS PAID.  It is entirely selfish system that imposes a form of debt slavery.The bonds (bonds are debt instruments) have as root word bondage.  Debt instruments grow with mathematical precision, and make claims, something like a math function in an excel spreadsheet.  You will be paid this X amount at this time nevermind what the real economy is doing.So, again, the problem is first, middle, and last - the malformed money system.The FIRST THING THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE, is strip  money power away from private banks.  Private corporations should not be hypothecating people with new debt instruments, to then make the money.A sovereign money system can be implemented overnight, and nobody would be the wiser.   AMI has worked out the details, and presented it to congress in the form of HR2990.So, just a few congressman, now paid off by aipac bankers, are fundamental to stopping the worldwide kebab-invasion and mex-invasion.  Our Jewish friends of course would be against HR2990.  Libertarians would be against it, because so many have been brain-washed.   A money system can be forced to pump into productivity modes, and still allow a declining population to have wealth and means.  Jew invented finance capitalism is worse than communism. Finance Capitalism was invented by Sephardic Jews in Amsterdamn in about a 200 year period

In reply to by land_of_the_few

kommissar Dame Ednas Possum Tue, 06/06/2017 - 08:45 Permalink

it would have been sustainable if the globalists had left well enough alone: western cultures +japan, were on a trajectory for ever decreasing population.  but they didn't, so we're now being over run with goat fuckers, who if they'd stayed where they belong, would have been limited by the resources, no matter the fact they breed like cockroaches.  

In reply to by Dame Ednas Possum

Ghordius Haus-Targaryen Tue, 06/06/2017 - 05:32 Permalink

"In the next 20 years..."

ehm... two things

- predictions for "the next 10 years..." are already very difficult to make. with some degree of reliability, that is

- the demographic predictions here are based on iffy assumptions and... they are of FIFTY years. that's Science Fiction.... period. not that SF isn't a worthwile thing, note

problem is, in the US there is a situation NOW that *resembles* what is being predicted here for select european countries like the Netherlands. and so all those articles are just that: an attempt of projections... for a "select public"

now, question time: how do you convince a Dutch young woman to plan for 3-4 children? how do you do that for a German or American one? it's there, all there: the future is always in the hand of who plans/has children

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Haus-Targaryen Ghordius Tue, 06/06/2017 - 05:49 Permalink

"how do you convince a Dutch young woman to plan for 3-4 children"Easy.  Deport all "muzzie" immigrants who commit crimes or are here and are a net fiscal drain on social services (e.g., take out more than they pay in). All of them.  Every. Single. One. Thereafter, millions of free apartments, used cars, spots in kitas and kindgergardens, hospitals, Kinderkliniken open up as the services provided for the domestic population isn't having to accommodate a foreign hoard. Then tax the shit out of women and men who decide not to have at least kids. "Ahhh, you don't want to have kids?  That's fine, but you're gonna pay a small fortune annually for that luxury." This of course is impossible within a "democratic" system, so the ideals of democracy must be stamped-out.  The reason I choose 20 years, is if it DOESN'T happen in 20 years ... Western Europe is finished. It will look like Chicago mixed with Istanbul mixed with Johannesburg.  Infrastructure will go to hell.  Public education will go to hell. Medical system will go to hell. The continent that belonged to your ancestors for THOUSANDS of years you simply gave away. Millions of your ancestors gave their lives to give you a Europe that was not perfect, but materially better than the rest of the world. What did your generation do?  Destroyed it.  Congratulations. The few Europeans that are left will either be leaving for Eastern Europe or be living like they do currently in South Africa. Behind gates with private security. Kids taking the train or walking to school?  Forget it.  "Ok kiddies, everyone get into the B7 armor-plated M-Klasse to go to school" But as we have seen in the Middle East and Africa, these people you're brining in lack the intellectual capability to embrace "live and let live" like has been promulgated here in the West.  They'll demand special treatment at first and then conformity. Then as they out-breed everyone here they'll become the majority and the continent will be what they want it to be not what the domestic population wants it to be. Unfortunately, sometime in the past 18 months I feel as if Western Europe crossed some rubicon.  At this point, there is no way of allowing "democracy" to these problems out. "Democracy" is what has gotten us into this mess -- its going to take an iron fist to get us out. Your generation has destroyed western civliization. The next 20 years in Europe are authoritarian ethno-nationalism or the end of Western Europe.  Its just that simple. Birth-rates and demographics are great predictors of future behavior and performance. It doesn't look good. 

In reply to by Ghordius

MEFOBILLS Ghordius Tue, 06/06/2017 - 14:11 Permalink

The Nazi method of giving families money when they get married works.  Each Child born reduces the amount that has to be repaid.  German family formation and making kids was a social goal.Putins method of channeling money into family formation has stopped the demographic decline in Russia.Again and Again and Again,It always boils down to the money system.  Money serves as latent demand.  You can channel it to get an output desired.  Look, democracy is just a sop and cover for rent taking by finance sector.  The finance sector is the leading element in deep state, and the deep state is what runs the Western Demon-

In reply to by Ghordius

waspwench MEFOBILLS Tue, 06/06/2017 - 15:19 Permalink

Any scheme(s) to increase the birth rate would have to be restricted to the native, white population.   To do otherwise would be to exacerbate the present situation.   Restricting incentives to the native whites will be perceived as racist and will require strong-willed leaders to implement them.Apropos the Dutch, they could have/should have voted for Geert Wilders.   On second thoughts, they probably did.   I think their election was rigged, as was the French election and as they are trying to do in the UK right now.

In reply to by MEFOBILLS

Haus-Targaryen josie0802 Tue, 06/06/2017 - 06:12 Permalink

Yeah, not surprising.  I was at the Ausländerbehörde getting my Aufenthaltstitel renewed recently, me, being a white educated and semi-wealthy immigrants from another first-world nation has to jump through so many flaming-hoola-hoops, while the room full of north africans literally just had to say "I from Syria." over and over and over again and they get to stay. Its amazing.  

In reply to by josie0802

josie0802 Haus-Targaryen Tue, 06/06/2017 - 07:20 Permalink

Haha I know exactly what you mean. They get to stay (often on false pretenses) and then have the gall to be not satisfied with their free brand new housing in Ypenburg because they have to share the living and kitchen and bathroom. This while many millenials still live with their parents and all students crowd together as well.

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

HenryKissinger… Haus-Targaryen Tue, 06/06/2017 - 09:40 Permalink

I was at the Ausländerbehörde getting my Aufenthaltstitel renewed recently, me, being a white educated and semi-wealthy immigrants from another first-world nation has to jump through so many flaming-hoola-hoops, while the room full of NAFRIS... yes, it is pretty disapointing how easy the nafris get papers while the tax paying foreign engineers have to go through through the full KAFKA process...

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Singelguy Haus-Targaryen Tue, 06/06/2017 - 07:43 Permalink

I think you are approaching this the wrong way. Why does the population have to keep increasing? The best solution is to reduce the immigration, cut the taxes and reduce the welfare subsidies to everyone accordingly. Many of the so called refugees will leave as they are only here to live off the taxpayers and contribute nothing to society or the economy. When they see there is no longer a free ride, they will look for greener pastures. With more disposable income, the natives might choose to have more children. If not, then there will still be less stress on housing, transportation, employment, and the environment.

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

HenryKissinger… Haus-Targaryen Tue, 06/06/2017 - 08:49 Permalink

Then tax the shit out of women and men who decide not to have at least kids. "Ahhh, you don't want to have kids?  That's fine, but you're gonna pay a small fortune annually for that luxury." This of course is impossible within a "democratic" system, so the ideals of democracy must be stamped-out. In Germany today you are TAXED to DEATH, if you do not marry and have children... is Germany a democratic republic?

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

WallHoo Haus-Targaryen Wed, 06/07/2017 - 08:40 Permalink

"how do you convince a Dutch young woman to plan for 3-4 children"Then tax the shit out of women and men who decide not to have at least kids.  "Ahhh, you don't want to have kids?  That's fine, but you're gonna pay a small fortune annually for that luxury."  Haus i know that you think yourself as an economic genious,but clearly you are not...And i see that you think that you can solve anything by economic means,also thats not possible.Now,i dont want to debate your economic thought(its pointless),but when it comes to thinks such as women-men-family,those things are WAY OUT of your league and they dont work like economic insetives do for companies.And by the way tax those that dont have children???I wonder can we aply that method to economic rentiers and landlords??Tell me haus,have you ever thought what would hapen if your wife sudenly started fucking other people??What would happen to you??Your child??What will society and the courts will say i wonder!!Economic insentives(positive or negative) are the least of your concerns...Look at how others breed in poverty.What you need are laws favouring families and not all this whoring that is promoted,but that would ruin the 

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

Mareka ACP Tue, 06/06/2017 - 06:49 Permalink

The same idiots who panic about overpopulation panic about falling population. Immigration to keep a population growing is only important to governments that always want to spend more next year than they did last year. Quality of life decreases for everyone who is already a citizen.

In reply to by ACP

Darth Vader Erek Tue, 06/06/2017 - 05:28 Permalink

We've woken up to this shit too late.  Europe's gone baby.  Can other Western countries stop their sociopathic leaders before it's to late and the demographics become destiny?  I hope so.  But right now when it comes to weapons to stop this i feel like i'm in the movie Aliens.  "What are we meant to use...Harsh Language?

In reply to by Erek