Mr Creosote is Full

By Chris at

Maitre D': "And finally, monsieur, a wafer-thin mint."

Mr Creosote: "No."

Maitre D': "Oh, sir! It's only a tiny little thin one."

Mr Creosote: "No. F**k off. I'm full..." [Belches]

Maitre D': "Oh, sir... it's only wafer thin."

Mr Creosote: "Look - I couldn't eat another thing. I'm absolutely stuffed. Bugger off."

Maitre D': "Oh, sir, just... just one..."

Mr Creosote: "Oh, all right. Just one."

Maitre D': "Just the one, sir... voila... bon appetit..."

[Mr Creosote somehow manages to stuff the wafer-thin mint into his mouth and then swallows. The Maitre D' takes a flying leap and cowers behind some potted plants. There is an ominous splitting sound. Mr Creosote looks rather helpless and then he explodes, covering waiters, diners, and technicians in a truly horrendous mix of half digested food, entrails, and parts of his body. People start vomiting.]

Maitre D': [returns to Mr Creosote's table] Thank you, sir, and now the check.

The Monty Python skit depicted has a lot of truth in it.

Only idiots refuse to acknowledge excess. Society is littered with examples of the consequences. Eating too much results in indigestion and lethargy, and, if done, regularly obesity and an early grave.

We'd be forgiven for thinking that these simple truths don't or won't apply to the financial markets.

Indeed, the GFC was but one of the last examples of such excess, and Canada's own Real estate market is now suffering what Mr Creosote suffered.

There are naturally other examples, many covered in my subscriber-only publication, but there is one elephant in the room worth looking at:

The above graph, which I nicked from Bloomberg, is actually only a few months old... and as such out of date.

How out of date can it actually be, you might ask? Heck, it's less than a month old.

Well, that's true but since these numbers are changing by the minute. When I sat down this afternoon to write this and I look at my Eikon terminal, the BOJ, for example, is already over 504.8 trillion yen.

These numbers should boggle the mind. They're tough to get your head around.

Combined, these three central banks account for roughly 14 trillion dollars of balance sheets.

What I want to point out today, however, is that the BOJ is actually accelerating this trend... quintupling its size in under a decade.

Today, the BOJ is much like Mr Creosote - their balance sheet being larger... yes, larger than the entire country's GDP. Now, isn't that some achievement?

Of all the three musketeers the FED actually looks relatively benign. Crazy when you think about the numbers but true nonetheless.

This is what happens when even though you're gorging yourself at the buffet your two mates are shovelling sausages down the hatch without even chewing them and thus ingesting more than you are. You're all going to suffer massive indigestion and quite possibly death but they're probably going to get them sooner.

In terms of numbers the ECB balance sheet is roughly 43% of the Eurozone's GDP, though with Draghi's ongoing asset purchase program this will blow out further.

The Fed, on the other hand, are sitting at just 25% of US GDP and now actively discussing reducing the balance sheet. Whether they can actually do this or not without all sorts of market disruptions remains to be seen, of course.

What we have, however, is a massive divergence in monetary policies going forward... something I've been beating the drum on here. There are a number of factors that will cause a fracturing of the unprecedented coordination between global central banks, which the world has come to accept as standard.

At the tail end of this insanity sits the BOJ who shortly will own the majority of the Japanese bond market as well as a healthy slice of the equity market. Unwinding those positions is quite simply impossible without it looking quite similar to Mr Creosote divesting of his overconsumption.

The yen will slice through the last recent lows of 120, heading rapidly for 150 and there will be all sorts of fun to be had for those positioned.

The question to ask yourself is this: "How far can the Fed push this divergence between central bank policies without causing a disruption (in bonds) to the overall market?"

As you ponder this question, let me remind you of what that last wafer thin mint did to Mr Creosote.

- Chris

"Nature gave us pain as a messaging device to tell us that we are approaching, or that we have exceeded, our limits in some way." — Ray Dalio


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HowdyDoody DeadFred Tue, 06/20/2017 - 03:35 Permalink

In pre-WW II Hungary, the pengo (their currency) was running about 4 to the USD. After the war, with rampant inflation, the situation was so bad that the pengo was replaced by a new currency, the forint, dropping off a few trailing zeros.

1 forint was set at USD 0.085 (ie ~12 forint to the USD)
1 forint = 400,000,000,000,000,000,000 pengos

As Crocodile Dundee would say, "Call that inflation? THIS is inflation"

In reply to by DeadFred

philipat Reaper Mon, 06/19/2017 - 21:09 Permalink

On the subject of Gold, I have been pondering this very issue for some time. When I first visited Tokyo circa 1980, in the days before the "Japanese miracle", (based on a viscious circle of credit expansion and property price escalation - sound familiar?) the JPY/SUD exchange rate was around 240. And given the state of Japan's economy (in a word, fucked) I can see no good reason why it will not return to these levels.Now, given that Gold has been perfectly synchronized with the USD/JPY exchange rate for several years ( for no good apparent reason), what happens to Gold if the USD/JPY rate goes substantially higher, even with a weakening PP Dollar? The pundits generally assume that PM's will take off to the upside during a economic recession/collapse, but if, as seems likely, this is also accompanies by a collapse in JPY, what then?I think that this is a downside risk that I don't see covered by any of the usual suspects who are very well aware of the facts above.

In reply to by Reaper

el buitre philipat Mon, 06/19/2017 - 22:42 Permalink

Now, given that Gold has been perfectly synchronized with the USD/JPY exchange rate for several years ( for no good apparent reason),The key word is "apparent."  There is surely an al gore rhythm backed by unlimited USD painted electrons in the basement of the Treasury, behind a guarded door marked ESF, which funds derivatives so that the Yen/USD ratio is proportionally linked to the CME futures market price of gold.  If the value of the yen increases, like Scotty on the Enterprise, this algo will pour naked gold shorts like dilithium crystals into the CME.When enough people realize that paper/electronic gold is not gold, and each should have its own market,  then the price of CME gold will go to zero and the price of phyz goes through the roof.

In reply to by philipat

bshirley1968 Mon, 06/19/2017 - 22:07 Permalink

The yen and Euro are just proxies of the dollar.  They are three legal of the same table.  They measure each other's value based on one another.  It's a three shell game at it base level.  Dollar is "up"?  Based on wha5?  Yen is down? Based on what?  Back and forth they go.Japan is being nuked again and if the jews in N,Y, London, and Brussels have their way, China will be next.  They will ride that horse til it is dead.  This article is for the simple minded who thinks that the yen, euro, and dollar along with their perceived economies are independent of each other. 

Synoia Mon, 06/19/2017 - 22:08 Permalink

At the tail end of this insanity sits the BOJ who shortly will own the majority of the Japanese bond market as well as a healthy slice of the equity market. Unwinding those positions is quite simply impossible without it looking quite similar to Mr Creosote divesting of his overconsumption. If you are correct MMT is BS. If nothing happens, the MMT is proven correct. MMT considers central banks arms of a countyr's treasury. For your doosday scenario to be correct, who is the creditor who is going to call the debt as due?

gmak Tue, 06/20/2017 - 07:07 Permalink

You'll notice that the Maitre'D (whom I assume represents "The House", still shows up to present the bill to the corpse. And, I assume, that he will go on to offer other "Wahhffer thin mints" to other parties.