"Probably Nothing"

For the first time since September 2001, Robert Shiller's CAPE Ratio measure of stock market valuation has topped 30x...

(...and yes, we know, we "don't get it" and "this time is different" and "the world is a changed place" and so on...)

Time will tell...

Source: Multpl.com

In the history of the stock market, it has only traded at a richer valuation during one period - June 1997 to September 2001 - as the dotcom farce blew and burst.

And the market has only been this 'euphoric' once...

Trade accordingly.


GUS100CORRINA Ring_Of_Fire Mon, 06/19/2017 - 16:15 Permalink

I want to suggest that the "Schiller CAPE ratio" graph may NOT be correct. When you factor in GAAP versus NON-GAAP earnings and Leveraged Stock Buy Backs, the current 2017 level CAPE probablly greater than 2000 peak. In fact, beginning at point where QE was introduced, the markets broke bigtime with all kinds of distortions being introduced!The PANIC-EUPHORIA model looks to be showing the truth.

In reply to by Ring_Of_Fire

order66 Mon, 06/19/2017 - 12:47 Permalink

Tax Amnesty/Cuts of 15% or more. $1 Trillion credit card charge for infrastructure.Either of those don't happen and everything crashes.

The Binary Man (not verified) Mon, 06/19/2017 - 12:51 Permalink

Has anyone heard about Binary Option? well, I guess we all have. I know most of us are tired of investing simply because we keep loosing. I have good news. Do you want to make $350-$400 per hour by using binary option. Call me Jerry, I am a trader. I will work with you and teach you my exact strategy. My winning rate is 95%(I could say 100% but allow me sound human lol).. Contact me on jerrylei2562@gmail.com

Insurrexion (not verified) The Binary Man (not verified) Mon, 06/19/2017 - 12:57 Permalink

Jerry Lei is a Russian Hacker.Email his ass with this 'special cut and paste":"Jerry you have been reported to the FBI and the Department of Justice. We have your IP address and your home address. The authorities will be visiting you very soon with a special "knock on the door" and "Open up, FBI."Have a nice day Jerry." 

In reply to by The Binary Man (not verified)

Cordeezy (not verified) Mon, 06/19/2017 - 12:58 Permalink

Not one of these models predicted 2008, after years of the stock market going up, it is inevitable that the market will correct itself.  No one knows what will be the trigger that sets it all off.  Trading is done on computers and by algorithims, so it may be that we don't even see it coming because of the automation behind the system.  These warning signs are helpful, but these charts could have been used two years ago to give the same warnings.    www.escapeamazon.com/read-this 

armageddon addahere QE4MeASAP Mon, 06/19/2017 - 13:55 Permalink

Wait long enough and you won't have any cash.You want to be standing on the deck of the Titanic, beside a lifeboat, wearing your life jacket and holding your suitcase when the siren blows. In other words stay invested but keep a tight stoploss.As to what you do with that big pile of cash when everyone else is getting soaked, what a problem to have.

In reply to by QE4MeASAP

Snaffew QE4MeASAP Mon, 06/19/2017 - 15:51 Permalink

nowhere is it recorded that if rates are low the only place to get yield is in US equities...so that's the reason to hold on and go more long?  because there's "no place left to go?"  Sure there is...a wildly oversold mining index, pm's, short positions, put options, value plays...etc.  There's a ton of places to roll your dough.

In reply to by QE4MeASAP

ElTerco QE4MeASAP Mon, 06/19/2017 - 18:33 Permalink

You certainly don't want to take it out in cash. Several countries have recently made high denomination bills worthless, and have capped the amount of cash exchanges. "Money laundering" is often the excuse to invalidate high denomination bills.

Russia only gave it's citizens two weeks to exchange with a $35 dollar cap (yes, $35 dollars):


In reply to by QE4MeASAP

Fitch Viscous (not verified) Mon, 06/19/2017 - 13:40 Permalink

Markets keep going where ShepWave says they will go. That is really all I know. Can't explain a thing. Zerohedge will get their crash at some time maybe. 

Full Court Lug… Mon, 06/19/2017 - 13:46 Permalink

Ultimately someone has to hold this mess, everyone can't sell at the same time. And based on valuation measures with strong historical correlations to subsequent returns (CAPE, Px/Rev, Mkt Cap/GDP) this market is priced to return less than nothing for the next 10-12 years.Fun fact: despite this ridiculous bubble the market still has only averaged <5% annually since 2000

gesshooo Mon, 06/19/2017 - 13:52 Permalink

NO! It's not different this time! For about 40 years I've invested in various markets and regardless if it's the equity, bond, gold, or the goat market, the one pattern is that all markets will correct at some point. If the markets are over bought share prices will decline and, if over sold share prices will go up. All that these "No It alls" do is spew nonsense. They haven't got a clue.

TheSilentMajority Mon, 06/19/2017 - 14:02 Permalink

This time is truly different.

SNB, BOJ, and ECB are printing unlimited amounts of digital cash and using it to buy anything and everything in the USA.

That never happened before 2009. Bigly different times that we are living in.

Deep Snorkeler Mon, 06/19/2017 - 14:03 Permalink

Markets are robot orgies ofphony digital values.Clustered hamster-wheels of smoke and lust.A massive faux-financialized FIRE economy:ever insane real estate taxes generated byby an insane housing market.A cannibal feast of American life.

TheRideNeverEnds PontifexMaximus Mon, 06/19/2017 - 16:22 Permalink

This index is a worthless pile of shit.

If you sold when it passed the previous all time high of 30 last time you missed out on tremendous returns. Same will happen this time, losers will sell out now and miss out on the best gains of this historic bull market or worse yet go short and go broke. More will pile onto the short side when we are passing 45; they will promptly be steamrolled into bankruptcy as the CAPE ramps past 60 with the S&P entering the ten thousands and once everyone has thrown in the towel and ZH is filled with stories of buy stocks! this market will go up forever! literally free money! Then it will all come crashing down.

In reply to by PontifexMaximus

Bryan Mon, 06/19/2017 - 15:00 Permalink

For a system that's on a daily drip of heroin and liquid crack, you'll have a bit of euphoria from time to time.  Nothing to see here though.  Move along.

Blankfuck Mon, 06/19/2017 - 15:37 Permalink

I know whats worth investing in! NOTHING!  Way too corrupt and when the shit hits the fan it will be a race to the exits again!Zero hedge take note$10000 im offering for anyone with information that brings the fed reserve down along with 4 of the big banks! Wells, Goldman, Bank of America, Citicorp-------serious posting here. The crime? collusion, corruption and stock market manipulation

decentraliseds… (not verified) Mon, 06/19/2017 - 17:06 Permalink

 Why waste time on this alligator when the swamp’s most critical economic and political problems revolve around the hegemony of a global corporate cartel, which is headquartered in the US because this is where their dominant military force resides. The US Constitution is therefore the “kingpin” of an all-inclusive global financial empire. These fictitious entities now own the USA and command its military infrastructure by virtue of the Federal Reserve Corporation, regulatory capture, MSM propaganda, and congressional lobbying. The Founders had to fight a bloody Revolutionary War to win our right to incorporate as a nation – the USA. But then, for whatever reason, our Founders granted the greediest businessmen among them unrestricted corporate charters with enough potential capital & power to compete with the individual states, smaller sovereign nations, and eventually to buy out the USA itself. The only way The People can regain our sovereignty as a constitutional republic now is to severely curtail the privileges of any corporation doing business here. To remain sovereign we have to stop granting corporate charters to just any “suit” that comes along without fulfilling a defined social value in return. The "Divine Right Of Kings” should not apply to fictitious entities just because they are “Too Big To Fail”. We can't afford to privatize our Treasury to transnational banks anymore. Government must be held responsible only to the electorate, not fictitious entities; and banks must be held responsible to the government if we are ever to restore sanity, much less prosperity, to the world. It was a loophole in our Constitution that allowed corporate charters to be so easily obtained that a swamp of corruption inevitably flooded our entire economic system. It is a swamp that can't be drained at this point because the Constitution doesn’t provide a drain. This 28th amendment is intended to install that drain so Congress can pull the plug ASAP. As a matter of political practicality we must rely on the Article 5 option to do this, for which the electorate will need overwhelming consensus beforehand. Seriously; an Article 5 Constitutional Convention is rapidly becoming our only sensible option. This is what I think it will take to save the world; and nobody gets hurt: 28th Amendment: Corporations are not persons in any sense of the word and shall be granted only those rights and privileges that Congress deems necessary for the well-being of the People. Congress shall provide legislation defining the terms and conditions of corporate charters according to their purpose; which shall include, but are not limited to: 1, prohibitions against any corporation; a, owning another corporation; b, becoming economically indispensable or monopolistic; or c, otherwise distorting the general economy; 2, prohibitions against any form of interference in the affairs of; a, government, b, education, c, news media; or d, healthcare, and 3, provisions for; a, the auditing of standardized, current, and transparent account books; b, the establishment of state and municipal banking; and c, civil and criminal penalties to be suffered by corporate executives for violation of the terms of a corporate charter.