After Shocking Saudi Shakeup "Not A Question Of If But When New Escalation With Iran Starts"

Two days ago, when reporting on the surprising "terrorist attempt" by Iran's National Guard on a major Saudi offshore oilfiled (at least according to Saudi media), we said that "if the Saudi account of events is accurate, and if Iran is indeed preparing to take out Saudi oil infrastructure in retaliation or otherwise, the simmering cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is about to get very hot." This in turn followed an earlier analysis on the ongoing Syrian war in which we said that "the next major regional conflict appears set to be between Saudi Arabia and Iran. All it needs is a catalyst."

That catalyst, according to energy consultancy Petromatrix, may have been revealed overnight with the stunning Saudi royal shakeup in which the King announced he was stripping the current Crown Prince, his nephew Mohamed bin Nayef (MBF), of all titles and obligations, and replacing him with his son Mohamed bin Salman (MBS).

Summarizing the event, Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob wrote that "the day starts with the Saudi Crown Prince sent to retirement and replaced by the deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). MBS was already the strong hand in Saudi Arabia, this latest development, and the purge that goes with it, confirms that he is the de-facto king of Saudi Arabia. Under his watch, Saudi Arabia has developed aggressive foreign policies (Yemen, Qatar...) and he has not been shy about making strong statements against Iran."

The punchline: "with MBS now having greater control of Saudi Arabia and with Jared Kushner having a large control of the White House it is not really a question of if but rather of when a new escalation with Iran starts."

Jakob wasn't the only one to react strongly to the Saudi royal shakeup. Below, courtsy of Bloomberg, are several other notable reactions:

John Sfakiankais, director of research at Gulf Research Center in Riyadh

  • The crown prince is “the architect of the Vision 2030” and the Aramco IPO is “a cornerstone of the vision”
  • "Saudi Arabia will even try to push for more dominance in OPEC. Bringing in Russia to the deal was hard without Prince Mohammed’s role behind the scenes”
  • “He will also make sure that the country in the long-term will move away from oil. But in the short-term Saudi Arabia will still remain focused on using oil revenue to support its diversification plans”
  • "Saudi oil policy will be business as usual meaning that they will continue to look at supply imbalance in the market and if the situation requires a further cut or interference, the Saudis will consider taking further actions”
  • “Deepening the cuts of OPEC is now a very likely scenario if oil prices continue to tumble”

Rodger Shanahan, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney.

  • “Saudi has tried to assert its authority over a range of regional events, and by cementing the question of succession at this time, the region is on notice that this direction will be pursued for the long term”
  • “MBS’s youth means that there will be no interim succession -- he will be in power for a long time and has been a very public proponent of a robust Saudi presence in the region”
  • “MBS has been very public in naming Iran as the major threat and we should expect to see a continuation of tensions and proxy conflicts in the region”

Amir Handjani, senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, speaking from New York City

  • “MBS has been consolidating power is various ministries that were long the domain of Muhammad Bin Nayef”
  • While the promotion is “hardly surprising” it “does amount to a political earthquake for Riyadh”
  • Prince Muhammad Bin Nayef has had “a long track record” of combating terrorism in the kingdom and strong relationships with intelligence communities” in many Western capitals
  • MBS “so far has had a disastrous war in Yemen to contend with as he tries to reorient the Saudi economy from being dependent on oil”

Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of Cornerstone Global Associates:

  • Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is “seen as the modernizer” in Saudi Arabia and the appointment “increases his remit” and leverage to introduce reforms
  • Previously, his focus was on economic and social reforms, will now have “ability, clout and leverage to implement reforms in politics as well"
  • Appointment is “a vote of confidence” by the king and the succession council, which “voted overwhelmingly in his favor on what he has been doing so far
  • MBS “has really been the powerful man in Saudi Arabia ever since his appointment as deputy crown prince,” and while today’s announcement doesn’t change much on the ground, it “removes impediments that he had in that he had someone more senior to him who was perhaps a bit more conservative;” “now he’ll have a freer hand”

Rami Khouri, senior public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut:

  • “Evidence suggests that Mohammed Bin Salman is daring, that he does bold things, but he hasn’t done them very well,” such as Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Yemen and Syria, and the standoff with Qatar
  • “Seems to have a lot of support among many Saudis, especially younger people”
  • Historically, Saudi Arabia has been extremely cautious and low key, but that’s changed since Arab uprisings
  • “The region is changing around them radically in ways they do not like -- they do not like democratic elections or a free, liberal press, they don’t like the spreading Islamist movements, they don’t like Iran having good ties with the West; they can’t seem to stop them, and this is their reaction”

Amin Saikal, director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University.

  • Prince Mohammed Bin Salman "has been at the forefront of Saudi Arabia’s isolation of Qatar, the war in Yemen, and enmity with Iran," Saikal said. "Now that he’s entrusted with more power, one cannot be too hopeful for improvement in the regional situation."


Crypto-World-Order (not verified) Wed, 06/21/2017 - 08:18 Permalink

Well zinonist ass licking trump didnt sell these crypto-jews 110B in weapons for nothing bitchez. Israel needs its usury all throughout the middle east

GUS100CORRINA svayambhu108 Wed, 06/21/2017 - 08:42 Permalink

After Shocking Saudi Shakeup "Not A Question Of If But When New Escalation With Iran Starts"My response: Interesting development to say the least. IRAN will most probably start a conflict that will end badly for IRAN. This will ultimately usher in the Eze38-39 conflict resulting in eventual PEACE in the Middle East and finally usher in the seven year great tribulation. Things are about to get VERY INTERESTING for period of 2017-18.=== Saudi Arabia Governmental Structure ===The king combines legislative, executive, and judicial functions and royal decrees form the basis of the country's legislation. The king is also the prime minister, and presides over the Council of Ministers (Majlis al-Wuzar??), which comprises the first and second deputy prime ministers (usually the first and second in line to the throne respectively) and 23 ministers with portfolio and five ministers of state. The king makes appointments to and dismissals from the Council, which is responsible for such executive and administrative matters as foreign and domestic policy, defense, finance, health, and education, administered through numerous separate agencies. There is also a 150-member Consultative Assembly, appointed by the King, which can propose legislation to the King but has no legislative powers itself, including no role in budget formation. The government budget itself is not fully disclosed to the public. "Fully 40%" ... is labeled `Other sectors` (including defense, security, intelligence, direct investment of the kingdom's revenues outside the country, and how much goes to directly to the royal family).

In reply to by svayambhu108

earleflorida svayambhu108 Wed, 06/21/2017 - 09:30 Permalink

people voted for trump! not the asshole couple 'jew and dark`soul ivanka' whose father (trump could have been in the same boat as kushner's oldman) was sent to prison by nj. gov. chris christie (that's why trump ignored him) and threw him under the bus!it makes me sick to watch this nobody running the show,... being from '666' zionist sheckles!!!let's hope trump does get impeached or resigns...jmo

In reply to by svayambhu108

earleflorida doctor10 Wed, 06/21/2017 - 11:14 Permalink

the big question... or problem[s] for the saudi(GCC)'s and (in our hour of need?) ussa 'is' (and not clinton's defintion) explaining away [our/their] friendly terrorist 'ISIS & al Qaeda' as being the better of two evil via terrorist!this is a major PR roadblock being they destroyed europe, yemen, libya, syria, and western iraq...etal.!

In reply to by doctor10

OldFahrtyPants Wed, 06/21/2017 - 08:27 Permalink

I think he will send the Kingdom in the right direction. No fan of the Sods but if he is a modernizer the young will like him. He will be in power for decades. His problem is he is strategically a fuckwit though. His war in Yemen is useless, if he tries conflict with Qatar he will fail.

el buitre OldFahrtyPants Wed, 06/21/2017 - 11:08 Permalink

I give the entire Saudi "royal" clan less than 18 months before they run to their hidey holes in the west.  Their "royalty," a 20th century construction of MI6, is a semantic cover for the reality of them being a group of satanist thugs.    Ghalwar is supposedly pumping 98% sea water.  They are fucked.  The ESF has confiscated all of their trillions deposited over the last 40 years in T-Bonds and most of their Swiss storage gold.   As they told Flounder, "You trusted us."   They have truly fucked the goose, or in their case, the goat.  The Saudi's have been taking lessons from the USSA neocon Deep State.  When your policy doesn't work, double down on it.  I think in Vegas they call that the Monte Carlo fallacy.  It only works if you have infinite funds to bet.The Banksters are worried.  They are compulsive and ritualistic and wish to follow their long standing blueprints.  They were not to attack Iran until Syria falls to them and their head chopper proxies.  Expect more provocation directly by the USA in Syria hoping to reverse the tide and/or start a hot war with Russia.  I still think that the USA troop build-up annouced for Afghanistan is a covert means to amass grunts to attack the eastern border of Iran when the time comes.  Expect the numbers announced to keep climbing.

In reply to by OldFahrtyPants

earleflorida el buitre Wed, 06/21/2017 - 11:38 Permalink

the afghanistan tribes will never tolerate a ussa occupation esp. when the jihadist and warring tribes are on /near irans border.currently the ussa is training the afghan's who abandon their military post and re-enlist months later for the money.the poppy harvest (semi-annual) comes first, everything else is secondary.if anything *ashgabat,turkmenistan --- uzbekistan --- tajikistan needs* russia * for infrastructure and energy transmission

In reply to by el buitre

L Bean el buitre Wed, 06/21/2017 - 12:09 Permalink

I think it's all going to plan. The US wants Saudi Arabia cleared of its natives, before they rise up and overthrow their sham of a monarchy. The royals will leave, then the cleanup. Iran will need to be neutralized at some point for this to happen satisfactorily(in their tiny minds).Yes, a fantasy. But look at the arms sales of the past 10 years. The Saudi royals are terrified. And the US is salivating. What the neocons want is a petro-state in the literal sense. An oil colony. Run by the energy corps(ie defended by the MIC). This puppet monarchy shit is so 20th century, and too messy in their minds. This knuckling down in Syria is I think, "If we can't take out Assad, we can at least camp out at Iran's border until the kickoff of the big one".

In reply to by el buitre

just the tip silverer Wed, 06/21/2017 - 12:04 Permalink

i've always wondered why all the oil in the world couldn't be here in the good old USA.  can't you just imagine it?  georgia letting a contract for 150 billion dollars in weapons to go after alabama for drilling into their formation.  texas would have continuing border skirmishes with louisiana, arkansas, oklahoma, colorado, and new mexico.  wyoming would be a hair trigger away from nuking montana.  and everyone would be fucking new england with sky high natural gas prices.  the mississippi river would have border patrol boats with tactical nuke mortars.  and tinker air force base out of oklahoma city would MOAB anyone with an IP address that posted a negative comment about fracking.fuck man.  that sounds great!!!!!!!!  when can we start?

In reply to by silverer

NickPeeMe Wed, 06/21/2017 - 08:31 Permalink

Drumpf is just the man to bomb Iran back into the stone age while at the same to protecting us from WW3. Man I sure am glad Hillary lost or we would be fucked. She did lose right?

Dumpster Elite NickPeeMe Wed, 06/21/2017 - 08:51 Permalink

If only Hillary had won. All would be right with the world. Those evil Russians would have been put in their place. Hillary would do all those amazing things she always does (because she's just the most qualified, most amazing person ever, in all of history), and we wouldn't have any of the problems that we do now. The whole world would love us, just like they did when Obama was President. The unicorns would return, and rainbows would fly out of everyone's assholes. It's obvious that everyone wanted Hillary to win. I mean, just look at the election results last night.

In reply to by NickPeeMe

Doom and Dust Wed, 06/21/2017 - 08:38 Permalink

Bin Shulman will have his inbred ass handed to him by Iran, his mercenaries can't even subdue a band of rag tag houthis.Also there is quite a 5th column in KSA itself with 15% of the population already restless Shia. 

null farflungstar Wed, 06/21/2017 - 17:11 Permalink

And the fact that the Neocon's favorite Saudi just got kicked to the curb means nothing to you?

Of course not, it's all about them imaginary Jew-tools ... which you just know he is, certain in fact. What you got some private media-espionage conglomerate that provides you accurate info? Or do you just selectively sip-up the fake news Designed to make you h8 the guy. So sad ...

In reply to by farflungstar

Iconoclast421 Wed, 06/21/2017 - 08:43 Permalink

Obviously the order from bilderberg 2017 was: START WWIIII RIGHT FRICKIN NOW. I dont see why printing $200 billion a month can't prop this shitshow up for another year. 

Zepper Wed, 06/21/2017 - 08:44 Permalink

It only takes one MAJOR incident to start a war or at the very least an oil embargo. You know like a U.S. ship being sunk by an overzealous Iranian riding on an inflatable combat rubber boat. OR... A stupid fucking captain and crew of a U.S. naval ship ramming something out of sheer fucking incompetence and blaming the Iranians. Fucking armed forces are in serious need of PC purging. The sad thing, both scenarios have the same probabilities of happening. 

dogismycopilot Zepper Wed, 06/21/2017 - 09:26 Permalink

This is the freaky part, isn't it?One accident and things will spin out of control very soon.All it will take is one guy (or girl or tranvestite, whatever) to go off the reservation and BOOM! President Trump = big ego, seldom backs down and he has gone full retard against the Russians.New Saudi Crown Prince = young, big ego, never backs down and is gunning for IranIran = they just lobbed a few ICBMs into Syria...I don't see them backing downFat Boy = young, big ego, never backs downPutin = up for re-election in 2018...has backed down a lot and to do so in an election year would be a sign of weakness to Russian people.Fucking eh, lucky if war doesn't break out by the end of the year!

In reply to by Zepper

JB Say Wed, 06/21/2017 - 08:53 Permalink

So he's agressive and reckless. Given the track record of Arab armies in recent centuries, this will get fugly. No doubt he will wind up sending in our Marines, and American public won't have any say in the matter. The end game is catastrophic war and a Greater Israel.

you_are_cleared_hot Wed, 06/21/2017 - 09:00 Permalink

Congratulations Iran, you have now been triangulated. Sauids to the south-west, Israelis to the west and the Americans everywhere else. War is coming people get your popcorn ready.

smacker Wed, 06/21/2017 - 09:49 Permalink

Advice to Iran is don't delay the inevitable confrontation with the sub-human Saudi gangsters until they take delivery of $110 billion in weapons ordered from the US. If necessary, do the world a favor and bomb Riyadh back to the stone age. Wipe them all out. It's the only solution.

farflungstar Wed, 06/21/2017 - 09:53 Permalink

It's always been about Iran. Except when it was about Iraqi "mushroom clouds" and then it was about Libyan "mass rape" and the "evil dictator crushing democracy" in Syria. OK OK its been largely about israel.  

L Bean farflungstar Wed, 06/21/2017 - 12:04 Permalink

Iran is "Haman/Satan", though.  Attacking their immediate neighbors; Lebensraum, "just business".  The tribe really does think that killing Iran will be good for their soul. If they could get away with nuking it they would. But more for dramatic effect than any actual geopolitical goal(other than showmanship).The myth is still a very important lever for the Jewish people. The 1% is in it for the profit, the rest are in it for the prestige of being a participant in an ongoing supremacy myth. It's a potent glue. Most other peoples quit sniffing glue long ago, but I digress. A likeminded flock(believing in complete nonsense for a feeling of comradery) are the US evangelicals. Savvy Israel noticed this right away and now these Christian tourists are a cash cow and constant donor.

In reply to by farflungstar

aliens is here Wed, 06/21/2017 - 10:04 Permalink

So if the wabbist axxholes go to war with Iran then it means we'll go to war with Iran too. Yay more trillion goes down to the drain. Good times man good times MIC is swimming in high class whores and cold hard cash.