US Oil Rig Count Drops For First Time In 24 Weeks As Trump Unveils US-Mexico Petroleum Pipeline

Last week saw US crude production decline by the most since Aug 2016 (perhaps affected by 'Cindy') and given the lagged response to WTI prices, many expected the oil rig count to drop this week. As WTI heads for its 7th up-day in a row - the longest streak in 6 months - it is supported as the US oil rig count dropped 2 to 756, the first drop in almost 6 months.

“Is it possible we’d have our first negative number in 24 reports? Unlikely but it’s possible” when you see production down 3 of the past 7 weeks,  Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA in New York, says by telephone


WTI is extending gains on the print...

As a reminder, Citi's head technician Tom Fitzpatrick, explained yesterday why oil is now due for a rebound, or as Citi puts it... 

"Oil hits the floor and is now set to soar!"

  • We believe that WTI Crude has posted a short term bottom. Previous short term bottoms have typically seen strong upside follow through with an average low to high rally of 22% over three weeks. 
  • The present price action on WTI Crude is also very similar to that seen in October/November of last year and in that instance, we saw a rally of nearly 23% in the 3 weeks after the low was posted. 

  • We are very focused on the price action seen in October and November of last year where we fell for 5 weeks from a high of $51.93 to a low of $42.20. This time, we also fell for 5 weeks from a high of $52.00 and hit a low of $42.05 last week.

Lower 48 Production fell 55k b/d last week - the biggest drop since Aug 2016...

Total U.S. crude output dropped 100k b/d to 9.25m b/d last week, biggest drop in almost a year and 3rd decrease in the last 7 weeks, according to EIA report Wednesday

We suspect the drop is related to shut-ins from tropical depression Cindy and will recover quickly. It appears President Trump is confident that the Lower 48 will keep pumping as's Tsvetana Paraskova reports, to boost American energy exports, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has approved the construction of a new petroleum pipeline from the U.S. to Mexico that “will go right under the wall,” President Trump said on Thursday.

As part of the ‘energy week’, which promotes U.S. global leadership and dominance in energy, President Trump announced six initiatives “to propel this new era of American energy dominance,” he said.

The first initiative is the U.S. to start reviving and expanding its nuclear energy sector. Next, the Department of the Treasury will address barriers to the financing of highly efficient, overseas coal energy plants, President Trump said, mentioning Ukraine as one of the countries that need coal. The third initiative is the petroleum pipeline to Mexico. The fourth step to growing American relevance in global energy is U.S. Sempra Energy signing a deal to start negotiating sales of more American natural gas to South Korea.

The U.S. also approved two long-term applications to export additional natural gas from the Lake Charles LNG terminal in Louisiana, President Trump said, pointing out the fifth initiative. As a sixth initiative, the U.S. is “creating a new offshore oil and gas leasing program” to open up more areas for offshore development, President Trump said.

We will be dominant. We will export American energy all over the world, all around the globe. These energy exports will create countless jobs for our people, and provide true energy security to our friends, partners, and allies all across the globe, President Trump said in his speech.

The U.S. Department of State issued on Thursday three pipeline presidential permits for U.S.-Mexico pipelines. The permit for the New Burgos Pipeline authorizes construction, connection, operation, and maintenance of a new pipeline that has the capacity to deliver up to 108,000 bpd of certain refined petroleum products. The pipeline will cross the U.S.-Mexico border near Peñitas, Texas.

“New permits for the existing Dos Laredos and existing Burgos pipelines, which cross the border in Texas near Laredo and Peñitas, respectively, reflect a change in the name of the permit holder and authorize transport of a broader range of petroleum products than under the previous Presidential permits,” the Department of State said.

The U.S. Department of Energy announced on Thursday the approval of the two long-term applications to export additional LNG from the Lake Charles LNG Liquefaction Project in Lake Charles, LA.


adr Fri, 06/30/2017 - 13:15 Permalink

Yeah, that's what we need. Exports to make it look like we're using more oil so the price skyrockets. As a base commodity for pretty much everything, oil needs to be as cheap as possible. Amazing people don't get that. 

MalteseFalcon froze25 (not verified) Fri, 06/30/2017 - 13:42 Permalink

"“We will be dominant. We will export American energy all over the world, all around the globe. These energy exports will create countless jobs for our people, and provide true energy security to our friends, partners, and allies all across the globe,” President Trump said in his speech."For the love of the lack of God, will somebody wake up Gail Tverberg and get some solid 1970s energy analysis in here.I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

In reply to by froze25 (not verified)

PitBullsRule Fri, 06/30/2017 - 13:18 Permalink

The country that uses the energy is the winner, the country that has the energy extracted from it and sold to another country is the loser.  You deplorables are on the wrong side again, idiots.

Sonny Brakes Fri, 06/30/2017 - 13:27 Permalink

By the time these pipelines get laid we'll have run out of places to go and we won't need all of the excess fuel. We and the environment will, however, be on the hook for the cost of cleaning up the mess.Commodities can only be monetized if there's a market for them. Consumers can only consume a commodity if they're able to exchange their labor for whatever unit of exchange the market will accept.

falak pema Fri, 06/30/2017 - 14:57 Permalink

As Gail Tverberg says : The debt conundrum is the straw that breaks the CB fed financial fed camel's back !Until the SUM of Private + Government debt, DENOMINATed in the FOUR CURRENCIES that make the current financial world : FED+ECB+BOCH+BOJ decide to fight BOTH deflation and inflation to right the ship of REAL economy there will BE NO RESOLUTION TO THE CB FED FIAT BUBBLE ECONOMY.The choice is impossible : either the bubble explodes and brings down TPTB + TBTF of Squid, Berkshire and Pax Americana hegemony; or else we fall into foggy bottom !THE FOUR HORSEMEN !AND THE PHUCKED UP DUCK IS NERO !AVE CAESARRRRRRR !!!!!