New Report Warns Nuclear War Is Inevitable Unless Cooler Heads Prevail

Authored by James Holbrooks via,

As the Syrian and Russian governments accuse the United States of trying to invent reasons to launch an attack in the Middle East, an international group of former military and diplomatic leaders is warning of an “unacceptably high” risk of global nuclear war if cooler heads don’t prevail.

In an 11-page report from the Nuclear Crisis Group (NCG) — a subcommittee of Global Zero, an organization that supports the total abolition of nuclear weapons — the former officials make recommendations to governments on ways to de-escalate tensions around the world.

“The Nuclear Crisis Group assesses that the risk of nuclear weapons use, intended or otherwise, is unacceptably high and that all states must take constructive steps to reduce these risks,” NCG asserted. NCG is a committee made up of individuals from 10 different countries, including Russia, China, and the United States.

NCG continued in its overview before getting to the specific recommendations. The group echoed the stance of its mother organization, Global Zero:

“The only way to eliminate fully the risks of nuclear weapons use is through their abolition. To achieve this, states with nuclear capabilities need, at a minimum, to reduce their reliance on nuclear weapons in their national defense plans, cease expansion of their nuclear arsenals, and reduce the number of weapons.”

On the deteriorating situation with North Korea, which NCG considers a primary concern, the group said a true de-escalation of tensions will take some time but that sanctions have clearly failed and that genuine diplomacy is the only avenue:

“To reduce immediate nuclear risks, the United States and North Korea should resume bilateral discussions immediately without preconditions.”

To get both sides to the table, the group suggested an immediate first step is for the U.S. to knock off the military aggression in the region.

Specifically, NCG said the United States should “suspend flights of strategic bombers and visits by strategic submarines” and “refrain from provocative military actions that could escalate to nuclear conflict.”

On Russia, NCG again said diplomacy is the answer. The group recommended that the “United States, Russia and NATO states commit not to issue public threats of nuclear first use” and “rapidly launch US-Russia strategic stability talks focusing on potential dangers flowing from existing and potential nuclear deployments, doctrines and modernization programs.”

When it comes to China, NCG found that while its relationship with the U.S. is improving in some areas, true progress has been hindered by a “changing balance of forces” and a “deep-seated lack of trust.”

“China’s growth in power and influence comes into tension with America’s global power and status. If not wisely managed on both sides, an incident in the region runs the serious risk of escalation,” the group wrote in its report.

And if an incident does occur in the region, chances are good it will take place in the South China Sea, where China has built and begun militarizing artificial islands. On that front, NCG recommends that China cease such activity and that all state actors in the region — including the U.S. — should jointly agree to protect shipping lanes and air transit routes and come up with guidelines that would allow all to prosper from trade.

As for the nuclear states of India and Pakistan, NCG found the biggest threat comes from those countries’ lack of security features in their programs. In speaking to Politico about the NCG report, Global Zero co-founder and former nuclear missile officer Bruce Blair said those programs lack the sophistication of those of other nuclear states:

“They lack safety features and the risk they would detonate from an accident is uncomfortably high. They have not developed the safety features that the U.S. and Russia have.”

The report further recommends that all nuclear states adopt no-first-use policies, greatly improve methods of communication to reduce confusion among nations should a crisis erupt, and develop cybersecurity measures to guard against the hacking of nuclear operations.


Francis Marx Sun, 07/02/2017 - 17:52 Permalink

To stop this madness we have to take away the privileged congress and senate's life long luxury underground bunkers. It makes it to easy for them to push the buttons.

seataka Francis Marx Sun, 07/02/2017 - 21:10 Permalink

To stop this madness.. we must teach how what they believe to be true is controlled, after a person learns the methods they cease to be effective.Dr. Robert Oppenhiemer tried to warn us in a lecture to APA in 1952: (Pub: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists May 1959)“In the last ten years physicists have been extraordinarily noisy about the immense powers, largely through their efforts, but through other efforts as well have come into the possession of man, powers notably and strikingly for very large scale and dreadful destruction. We have spoken of our responsibilities and our obligations to society in terms that sound very provincial, because the psychologist can hardly do anything without realizing that for him the acquisition of knowledge opens up the most terrifying prospects of controlling what people do and how they feel. This is true for all of you who are engaged in practice, and as the corpus of psychology gains in certitude and subtlety and skill. I can see that the physicists pleas that what he discovers be used with humanity and be used wisely will seem trivial compared to those pleas which you will have to make and for which you will be responsible.” NOTE: The comment that immediately follows the statement above: “This was for many psychologists, a most sobering observation. The possibility of controlling human behavior becomes a more terrifying prospect than the control of nuclear reactions” And note who this gentlemen represents: Arthur (Art) J. Bachrach (born March 20, 1923 – December 19, 2011) was an American psychologist and administrator, who was Professor and Chairman of the Department of Psychology at Arizona State University, and Director of the Environmental Stress Program and Chair of Psychophysiology at the Naval Medical Research Institute at the Naval Medical Center in Bethesda.  more

In reply to by Francis Marx

nevertheless Sun, 07/02/2017 - 17:59 Permalink

Oh thank God, it's just a stock photo of a nuclear explosion, I though Chump had nuked CNN... If we need cooler heads to prevail, we are in trouble. Between Chump and his idiot pro-Israel followers, someone in that White House is going to press the button.   

DavidFL Sun, 07/02/2017 - 18:11 Permalink

The next battle field associated with a major conflagration will be the middle east. The region is primed and ready. Seems clear enough. Anyway we already know the atmosphere can handle several nuke bursts and be just fine. Dont worry, "they" wont let it spread. An added advantage - kinda solves the whole suni shia thing.  

Dickweed Wang Sun, 07/02/2017 - 18:11 Permalink

Nice sentiment from the Nuclear Crisis Group but in reality, with the crowd infesting D.C. right now, the recommendations in the report have about a ZERO chance of being implemented.  If the people in the USA don't do something and get that crowd out of power that is currently infesting D.C. (they also have for decades) we just might be faced with a nuclear war, sooner, not later.

Lumberjack Sun, 07/02/2017 - 18:16 Permalink

Tylers, look for the dims/progs/useless unions/ CAP/ moveon/ pefophiles start raising merry old hell. Advice to local conservatives and LE. Keep a close eye on 'happy' campers. They are mobilizing the FSA to begin their summer of rage.

With Eric Holders latest tweet, the 'Comey is a Homey' event, Obama pushing climate and the mobilization of protesters this week. I would say it's safe to say trouble is brewing. Especially in states that are shut down.

Stay safe and don't let these idiots ruin your holiday, one that celebrates freedom and independence from others who had claimed their special and divine rights over our ancestors. As Ben Franklin once said....

moorewasthebestbond (not verified) Sun, 07/02/2017 - 18:24 Permalink

It's been 72 years next month since two nukes were supposedly fired in anger. For 72 years it's supposedly been a combination of luck and diplomacy that has kept it from happening again. I'm really starting to doubt nukes perform anywhere near the level advertsied, if they work at all.

DaBard51 Sun, 07/02/2017 - 18:34 Permalink

For those old enough to remember, it was, in the 1950s, necessary to refrain from milk consumption in the US for several days after tests of nuclear weapons in the Pacific, due to excessively high levels of radioactive iodine in the milk.That was for a single test, single-digit-megaton range, halfway around the world.  When nine hundred years old you become, look this good you will not.